Will it be a Bad Monday After Good Friday? DOW, STOCKS, GAINERS, GENERAL ELECTRIC, BOEING Posted By: Yolaiki Gonzalez | Market Data Analyst CNBC.com | 01 Apr 2010 | 10:51 AM ET As we head into Good Friday, a holiday that is observed by the U.S. stock markets, we may have little to be happy about on the day we come back from the long Easter weekend. Historically, the U.S. Markets have been slightly negative on the Mondays following Good Friday with the Dow & S&P down 55% of the time, and the NASDAQ Composite moving south 64% of the time. The markets have been closed now for more than 100 years since the last time they opened on Good Friday in 1907, here is a look at how the markets have performed the day before, the day after, and a week later after the observance of this religious holiday. Dow since 1900: ⢠On average, the Dow has gained 0.28% the day before Good Friday, up 64% of the time. ⢠On average, the Dow has lost -0.23% the day after Good Friday, down 55% of the time. ⢠On average, the Dow has gained 0.21% one week after Good Friday, up 55% of the time. S&P 500 since 1928: ⢠On average, the S&P has gained 0.35% the day before Good Friday, up 65% of the time. ⢠On average, the S&P has lost -0.17 % the day after Good Friday, down 55% of the time. ⢠On average, the S&P has gained 0.09% one week after Good Friday, up 56% of the time. NASDAQ Composite since 1971: ⢠On average, the Nasdaq has gained 0.48% the day before Good Friday, up 77% of the time. ⢠On average, the Nasdaq has lost -0.35% the day after Good Friday, down 64% of the time. ⢠On average, the Nasdaq has gained 0.55% one week after Good Friday, up 67% of the time. http://www.cnbc.com/id/36085552
having skimmed a couple of articles on the subject i change my expectations. basically, if the jobs are too high the market may take it as a negative because Fed will be more likely to raise rates sooner if there are a lot of jobs. my updated expectations: <<100K = dumping hard ~100-200K = slight sell-off 250-300K = slightly up >>300 = dumping hard
Either way its a positive: Bad number, markets sell off a whole 1% and regain it back by the end of the week on all the dip buying scenario everyone talks about. Good number, markets jump above 11k and head towards 12k by June. All bulls will cheer and tell everyone to buy the smallest pullbacks as the markets head straight back to 2007 highs.
Futures are slightly up, makes total sense. 162K was lower than expected (190K) but the census hires were lower than expected by 50K. so essentially the report slightly beats the consensus. still could sell on Mon...
i am thinking that whoever cooked up the job report has done a perfect job. 1) report slightly beat expectations (if adjusted for lower census workers) 2) Jan and Feb were revised higher, so there is evidence of sustainability of job growth 3) there are always some negatives if one dig into the numbers i am sure (i am not an expert on job reports) but 2) compensates for any negatives so, to summarize 1,2 and 3) add up to a report which is while positive still does not give Fed any reasons to raise rates. The Perfect Job Report! what goes for the Shorts is an overextended market and "sell the news" phenomenon. if we put everything together than a likely outcome is a gap up followed by a muted sell-off.
For the record, I sold half. I am now 2.5x leverage long. Reasons: 1) The 1% day I was waiitng as a contrarian arrived. 2) S2007S just covered and went long.