People are starting to look at the fundamentals of silver. For instance...Silver occurs in nature at a 17.5 to 1 ratio to gold. Currently its trading at a 45 to 1 ratio. Currently, there is less available physical silver in the world than gold for purchase. Silver that goes into industrial uses is lost forever(or at least its not worth the value to try and recover the used silver) This keeps the supply of silver more and more scarce. The question is not "why isnt silver going down" The question is, "why isnt silver $200 per oz yet?"
I don't think that's a sound reasoning, silver is an industrial metal and when emerging economies will come down , it will drop fast. Rationalizing on the basis of fundamentals is often a big mistake. Now it may go above $40 in a spike , but the problem is risk/reward is historically asymetrical for silver , the floor can fall off anytime and you have huge losses. That said it's a positive perhaps for now in a strong trend.
time to short silver for longerterm and on fundamentals is when everyone and their dog is long. I believe only 25% of investors have traded commodities, still has some way to go imo.
I would say it is Joe Six Pack who is buying Silver. Physical Silver and not the ETF. In the beginning of this thread I said whomever bought was much smarter than I. IMO, which is contrary to yours, I am thinking that most of this is fueled by square participation.
Silver 30.00 about to break-not looking strong...could be at 28.50 or below by this Friday's end of trading...
======================= Good points; good post. Yes, but it[silver chart] is homeade; think it was a 50 [area]usd spike, but actually its been so long since i studied that one, maybe 40.LOL Original poster; its a pretty good uptrend but if shorting, your plan has a good stop plan.Started to write look @ 10 year chart, but having done that, your smaller time frame [years]chart is just as good for support & resistance.
I really don't see a technical reason to short silver in here in terms of what IMO I perceive to be adequate risk/reward skew. In other words, the optimum short percentage-wise would be around 2900 after you've printed a couple clear daily closes below the current channel trendline support level. Just my 2cents, that's the way I trade at least. I suck at timing a top or bottom, but I am very good at letting the market tell me where it wants to go. Personally, I would gladly concede a big chunk of trading range for much better odds in terms of confirmation.
from that chart it looks like silver is going up. maybe i am a square but when things are going up i buy; when they go down i sell