I thought about the song/video and how it applies to trading, but I'm not positive if I figured it out or not. I would say if I don't see an obvious setup then don't enter a trade. In effect if the chart "says nothing at all" to me, then stay out. Wait until a setup looks obvious. Is that anywhere close? Buy low, sell high sounds pretty obvious, but buy low & sell high in relation to what? Buy at the low of a bar, sell at the high of a bar? Buy at a lower level & sell at a higher level? Is WTBATFP, wait then buy at the first pullback? If so then I know what all of the other abbreviations mean. The chart you posted is exactly what I do. I would buy on that green bar, get stopped on the next red bar, and watch price go bye-bye. I review my trades all the time, and I'm getting better even though it doesn't sound like it. Thanks for the help.
I have all the abbreviations except for these... WTSATFBD or WTBATFBO Wait then sell at the first Break down, wait then buy at the first break out????? I would like to know a little bit about how TE picks a target and a stop loss . I know sometimes he doesn't use stop losses but I know there has to be a point where he exits or reverses so I would be interested to find out what he thinks is optimal. I have found that just leaving the target and stop loss in place without fudging with it works best for me. Every time i mess with it or exit early I kick myself later.
Macattack, I'm in your shoes too bud... I Started the the process of removing the clutter about two months ago. Price and volume is all I look at now with S/R levels. Best wishes to you on your journey. Regards, Blox
Blox, I too found that leaving stop and target in place works best, but I'm still struggling with targets. Friday I had 4 trades in crude oil (CL): First was a SLABL in pre-market and since it had already broken down very hard was extremely overextended, I covered at the first sign of buyers for a very quick gain on this momentum play. Then I had a SHABL when price double topped following a strong run up. It was counter-trend and I had a .20 target. I got .11 in my favor and was then stopped out b/e. Next a WTSAFBD, using a breakdown of the 20 bar EMA, so I would be with-trend. This is the trade where I let previous trades cause me to be way too conservative with my target and leave a lot of money on the table. In choosing my target for this trade, I decided that since this was the first breakdown of the 20 EMA following a strong uptrend, price would do what it usually does and bounce at the lower channel line, then bounce and allow a with-trend re-entry to the short side for a real move down when the rally stalled. Sure enough, price tested the lower line, stalled, retested it, found support and I exited there, waiting for my expected re-entry signal. Had I left my stop at b/e and just waited, I would've caught a piece of a further .57 move. I was frustrated several days in a row letting $200-$300 winners reverse to b/e trying to let my targets be hit and allowed that frustration to bleed into a brand new trade. All week I'd been targeting a .70 move in CL and I gave it away by making assumptions about what price would do. After that large move, I had a SHABL with-trend entry, selling the small bounce the moment it failed, and set my target .05 below the previous pivot low because price had broken down so hard that a reversal there was likely. I lowered my target a bit when price reached it and tightened my stop to target. Initial target was attained on the pivot just a few ticks from the pivot low, so this trade worked out very well. Normally I set initial profit targets at a measured lower low in a downtrend, measured higher high in an uptrend. If trading breakouts, I set initial targets at a level similar to the most common breakout levels. If CL has been breaking out .30-.40 then I'll target .30-.40 on a breakout trade. Trend channel lines and previous S/R levels also help with targets, but sometimes limit your profits unless you're scaling out.
Mmmm, one for the newbies. SP500, 4hr candle, look for follow through action off the big % candles, strength moves to the up or downside.
TE, how can a wiggly line predict a price level?? An indicator indicates it doesn't tell. I would never take a trigger off of an indicator on it's own, but I do use them to tell me what is happening in the underlying price structure. They have many pitfalls, eg. a momentum study will often give a false signal just because momentum is decreasing but not necessarily reversing. You need to be aware of such limitations, use them with caution and look at them in the context of what overall price structure is telling you. If you use them properly then they can become a valuable addition to your trading. Unfortunately many beginners read a chapter in a book or watch a video and think they have it. They need to be battle tested, only then can you know what works and what doesn't. And what's the sodding problem with the England result?!? If Green hadn't made an unfortunate error (he's only human) we would've won it 1 nil and moreover England hardly ever make a strong start. If we come up against Germany in the 2nd round so be it, we'll have to come up against the top teams sooner or later.
Anyone use the same RR over and over or do you guys like to switch it up based on the setup? I tend to use either 1-1.5 or 1-2 Risk Reward. Tried 1-5 but psychologically it's tough to handle the majority losers waiting for the 1 winner.
The wiggly line in question is a MA and by definition it is derived from current and past price so it therefore lags. Some people seem to think that price reverts to the mean, i.e that the MA leads the price, and can therefore be a predictor of price. I don't believe that, its not good maths. The only way that MA could possibly be a predictor of price is if a sufficlently large number of traders believed it to be true in order to make the prophecy self-fulfulling. So its really a question of belief and faith. Personally, I think that the idea of price reverting to a mean is nonsense.