Computation of volatility (I use average true range) has predictive qualities. Expansion and contraction is more predictible than price. Only the direction remains to be seen. Relative strength, a synthetic result pitting a prevailing price against an index, say the S&P 500 has predictive qualties. RS will fade before the raw price. Neutralizes index influence revealing genuine movment. Rate of change aka momentum also changes before price, depending on the timeframe one uses. I use 23 days, which approximates a little over a month. Pretty damn good filter for me. Seasonal tendencies have predictive quatlities. Expiration (assignments) bias and beginning of the month (money inflows) are examples. Again, overall direction remains to be seen. More a matter of fertile ground. Round numbers, once clearly pierced (subject to interpretation) I would suggest are predictive. A basic triangle (declining resistance and rising support). Has to resolve. No way around it. Now, that resolution can be a headfake, but it has to resolve. That's predictive. The sooner the break is before the apex, in my opinion, the more reliable. Fundamentals? LOL. I've discussed this in the past. Too much typing. In a nutshell, 1. what's counted. 2. what's not counted. 3. how what's counted is counted. Cash vs accrual. Smoke, mirrors and bullshit. And some little twat auditor, named Susie, 3 years out of college, instructed NOT to upset the client. It's also the past. The word "predictive" pertains to the future. Random? Eh.......there are consistent money makers. Their focus is position size and exits. Latter word is plural. What'ya want, a swami? Some hag with a crystal ball? Have your palm read? You've got the boy part right.
As suggested by a few of the posters here, maybe take a look at yourself, by which I mean your own psychology, attitudes to risk, trade execution and management, etc. Are you taking trades randomly or are you waiting for your "edge" to set-up?
So the OP got so excited about his new purpose in life of posting on this website, that he immediatelly took a 48 hours weekend break midweek...
I Agree I had to go through all 7 pages of this thread so far to see that the Expert only posted once...
That's NOTHING! His t2w thread was about 50 pages long. Everything he said about trading could have been summed up in about 4 lines. Mainly: "Trade stocks with a decent daily range of at least 50c"! that's it! No hint as to whether to go long or short, lol! There are different characters here at ET compared to T2W, so it'll be interesting to see of the thread moves along (or not) in the same way.
Here's a thought... Everyone has access to the same price data, OHLC... So why is it that some are consistently correct in their analysis whilst others are consistently wrong? Can we assume then, that there must be some variables present in the way that this generic data is perceived and processed not on a chart but by the mind of the individual, which is a function of internal beliefs and experience... Not sure where I expect this to go, but it's maybe a different angle...
Now for the rest:eek: I have clearly stated in my opening post what way The Expert reacts, and that is always like for like. To those who have posted logically and civil, you are welcome to The Experts's thread, and, I can guarantee you that it will be very enlightening, if you will allow yourself to have an open mind. To the others, whom I will not call idiots for now, but I am very close to doing so , all I will say is go away and converse with those who think and act like you, for, you have a lot to learn from each other I will try to start Again:eek:, so please, this time act grown up and not like little children:eek: TE