Something about the baby in a warm place and the butterfly. Even the fingerprint (egg shape) and the golden egg. Narrow expanded narrow(egg shape). Is the baby (bird) in the egg? Waiting till time tells to fly/move away? Childs play: is it kids skip (jump over)? The Generals start to operate. They need stocks. The MM starts the hoover to swallow stocks/stops outside the range. It widens till all is hoovered. Then it narrows. No more stocks in the egg range/box. This leaves a footprint at the chart. AR + BE + Price Exit = GM? We need the monthly and weekly ranges to find the pattern? Months and weeks are random time periods. So with looking at more/both we have more chance of recognizing? Yes MK, now i understand. I thought TE had asked you in the social group to watch some video or something. As i did not entered the Social group due to language problems i thought i was behind in knowledge.
And there are no black swans either. By the way let's say 37% is still a probability. Not a good one (well, depends on the event), but you said by any probability, so you are clearly wrong... Can we close this thread now?
You are desperately picking up on isolated sentences and snippets to try and prove your point. Don't you get it? Why would anyone take a trade based solely on a pattern? That's just one reason technical traders use indicators, to measure other variables to support the probability or not of said pattern. Clearly the edge isn't TA? Intuition and psychic abilities? Is that what you are using in your critique of TA? It's not clear in the slightest, there are many very successful traders, I think most of the wizards in fact and indeed many traders on this very forum who consistently and successfully trade using PREDOMINANTLY TA based methods, so no it is not clear and for you to say otherwise would make you delusional. Have you ever done any rigorous testing yourself (and I don't mean some micky mouse Tradestation back-test on a sample size of ten) to disprove the effectiveness of TA, if so have you had it published? Where can we read it? Or are you just making assumptions based on your intuition and psychic abilities? Worse still are you just blindly following someone else's advice? It's like tire kicking Jensen Button's McLaren-Mercedes F1 car and saying you won't win nowt with that. Just because you wouldn't be able to take the first corner in it without spinning out.
Money management and an edge, I don't need to be right all the time and I won't be, that's trading. It takes a certain level of mental discipline to use TA effectively and admittedly if you lack that discipline then it won't work for you.
That stock is Becton,Dickinson & co. (BDX) and the wide range day was due to the report of 2nd qtr results. They were a mixed bag and initially caused an up move to strong resistance at a prior gap closing high. The inside day that followed is indecision but as the longer term chart shows a down-trend I would favour a continuation. TE you are continuing with your cherry picking of stocks as you showed on the UK site. You claimed to screen for large range low cost stocks but for examples show one off special situation stocks that could not have met your screen criteria and in this case a high value stock that will limit gearing. 76 Dollars is not really going to give stock numbers that give much leverage to many because I cannot see large numbers of daytraders lining up to buy\sell 2000 lots. Actually the volume numbers do not show much day trading activity which probably reflects the lack of cost efficiency. Inconsistency was the only consistent factor in your posts on the UK site and as your position moved further and further towards self ego enhancement without any substance in giving, you goaded the moderators into banning you. You are easily recognisable as the general in a previous incarnation on this site and have been recognised on another site. Again you have chosen the psychology section which I think is somewhat more than a Freudian slip on your part.
Although I disagree with your assumption/implication that I do not know how to trade, I only read the title and replied so I just went back and read your original post but that is as far as I will go. I'll bite, why don't you tell us some more. --------- As far as reading markets correctly, its really not that hard. it's all in the chart. For those having trouble with trading 1) learn "techincal analysis" which includes chart patterns , support & resistnace levels. 2) Momentum or "price action" is a big factor. 3) Entries are everything. (if you need a 3 point or 50 pip stop you are better off cutting the loss at the knees because bottomline, you have shitty entry). 4) Be patient and don't be so lazy. Most new traders want to get rich quick but will not spend the time doing their homework.
..and the Random Bullshit Presented as Fact Award goes to... You would know it how? I already presented the evidence for you about a dozen money managers interviewed in the Market wizzard books and they are on the record that yes, they do use TA. By the way, you can't prove a negative in this issue, just so you know...
I don't care if a person calls it TA or T and A or statistical time series analysis - the fact of the matter is that a trader requires some sort of historical reference point for which to make a simple decision: buy or sell. A simple moving average cross applied to 30 minute bars is actually real math: a statistical study applied to a data time series. I have an acquaintance who runs a Chicago-based commodities fund who lists his prospectus strategy as fundamentally-driven - but I know for a fact he has several CQG terminals in his office. Again, from my experience, my finding is that traders who have difficulties with TA are using the wrong studies, and/or the incorrect study parameters (the default settings are almost never optimum), and the wrong timeframes. BIG HINT: your trading will really take off when you come to the realization that using the same study for the position exit points on your trade gives back most of the profit or will turn a winner into a loss.
Chart-based trading is EVERYTHING! One needn't understand the 'fundamental' story to have a proficient approach trading. Take crude oil, for example...the US is still awash in supply with new rigs coming on all the time; yet the price is rising (and likely still rising). IMHO, the greatest distinction to be made in TA is whether one subscribes to "indicators and oscillators" or favors the basics, which I consider to be SUPPORT / RESISTANCE, chart patters, momentum and observing overall trends (higher lows, lower highs, etc.). The material can be taught easily; the proper attitude cannot. GL!