If you trade how much profit per year % considered good?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stupidtrader, Oct 2, 2024.

  1. ironchef

    ironchef

    Read @johnarb's posts. He is not a gambler.

    Or follow @poopy, @Kevin Schmit, @taowave... they are not gamblers either.
     
    #71     Oct 7, 2024
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  2. johnarb

    johnarb

    To be honest, I prefer the term "degen", but being called a gambler is something I would take as a compliment

    "You've got to know when to hold 'em
    Know when to fold 'em
    Know when to walk away
    And know when to run"
     
    #72     Oct 7, 2024
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  3. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet

    Hm...I think you guys are missing the point here.

    I'm not talking about trading as some kind of probabilistic adventure that you have to live through by using all kinds of arcane concepts.

    That comes much later when edge is in the single digit and you have to control variance.



    You need to understand that there are a gazillion markets out there that are fundamentaly broken (mango markets), a lot of toxic products that basically have one sided flow (FTXs securities) and can only trade in one direction, a lot of good markets with good products but awful matching algorithms (k-algo on CME) or stupid primary market makers (Alameda).

    If you are broke you don't use Monte Carlo ever...nor the law of large numbers or Black Scholes. Your job is to find a market that you can exploit with close to 100% winrates because of a bad feature.

    Livermore started in a bucketshop for a reason yet you try to emulate his adventures in the big markets. Think about that...
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2024
    #73     Oct 7, 2024
    TVIS, johnarb, ironchef and 5 others like this.
  4. ironchef

    ironchef

    If you know all of that, you are not gambling.

    Professional blackjack players, professional poker players, etc. are not gamblers. Maybe some of you called them professional gamblers?
     
    #74     Oct 7, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  5. ironchef

    ironchef

    I think I understand what you are saying and you made some excellent point that we all should try to do if we want to join the 1%.

    But it is very very hard. I have been working on day trading for close to two years, 8-10 hrs a day 7 days a week and I am still trading Sim. Not ready to go live yet.
     
    #75     Oct 7, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  6. Well I wasn't calling anyone a gambler specifically, more generally the masses of wannabe traders who overtrade or oversize.

    You are not 'trading' by my definition you are factor investing or something else long term. Though the sizing all in on one ticker can be a killer. I've seen it go poorly too often, a friend has the perfect trade, and ends up bag holding for years.
     
    #76     Oct 7, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  7. 2rosy

    2rosy

    Kalshi vs polymarket us presidential event arb for you
     
    #77     Oct 7, 2024
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  8. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet

    finally someone looked into it and picked it up XD

    How many days did it take? For real, why is it so hard to compare three websites on a regular basis (it's even the main market) even after the opportunity has been handed out on a silver plater?
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2024
    #78     Oct 7, 2024
    johnarb and ondafringe like this.
  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    I have not owned any stock or mutual fund in over 20 years

    I plan to purchase 1000 shares of MSTR if my mstr call options trade is profitable enough, if not then probably less shares

    Information Asymmetry --> Asymmetric risk-reward opportunity

    mstr started the bitcoin treasury in August of 2020

    Since that time,
    • it is the only company that has outperformed nvda
    • it is the only company that has outperformed every single company in the s&p 500
    • mstr convertible bonds are the best performing corporate bond in the US stock market and the demand has outstripped the issuance, always oversubscribed even with very low interest rate
    • [incidentally, El Salvador bonds are the best performing sovereign bonds in the world since they adopted bitcoin]
    • ytd, it has outperformed bitcoin, ibit/spot etfs, bitcoin miners, coinbase, and other bitcoin-proxy equities
    • But it is very very volatile
    With the first 3 points, you would think that CNBC would be talking more often about mstr, especially whenever nvda is mentioned or interest rate is discussed as it relates to capital markets and other related topics

    There is little interest in mstr as shown by google search trends. Even here on ET, not much interest, but it is discussed because of its high IV options premiums rolling covered calls thread

    But if bitcoin performs as well as it has in previous fourth quarter periods of bitcoin halvings, things can get pretty wild with mstr

    I am only going to invest in one ticker which is mstr, just as I believe that 1 bitcoin will be worth $1M before the end of 2029, I also believe 1000 shares of mstr will be worth $10M in the same timeframe

     
    #79     Oct 8, 2024
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    Sorry forgot to put a disclaimer on the above post

    All OF MY POSTS ON THIS THREAD ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE AND ARE PURELY FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY


    I'm not a certified financial advisor, merely a computer technician by trade
     
    #80     Oct 8, 2024