you are thinking way to complicated, my friend. https://kalshi.com/ https://polymarket.com/ https://www.predictit.org/ also: https://kalshi.com/api You should be able to put together a basic intra exchange arb bot within a couple of days. There are even some samples on Github: https://github.com/carllman13/Kalshi_Trading have fun
He claims 11,000 subscribers. At $50/month that's half a million $ a month. I think he found his arb! Here is my sure fire arb play. Subscribe to algos.org using a pre-paid Visa card from DollarTree and a ProtonMail email address. Scrape all past, current, and future articles and post them, only with redone better graphics, to your site on the Dark Web. Sell subscriptions for $10 a month in Monero. Whe're we going for pizza?
It is disheartening and discouraging for us struggling amateur retails to learn that is is so easy to make 200x in a year and that there are so many ways to do it. In the mean time I bet most amateurs on ET can't even make a lousy 20-30% a year year in year out. We need help sir. Thanks.
Lol, well played, sir. There is free and paid content though and my best guess is that most subscriptions are zero income. I'm pretty sure that some basic googling will lead you to the content for free... And by the way: Protonmail changed their Terms of Service. They are not helping anonymous gangsters anymore and share all your data with the authorities. In case you're into these microscopic every day arbs, you might like these: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/credit-card-arbitrage/id1527018692?i=1000638811295 https://milesearnandburn.com/index.php/2024/10/03/thursday-bank-stuff-and-bonus-promos/ Just because we're already here spilling resources anyways
Perhaps you use this realization as inspiration to take a peek outside the box. There are a lot of games out there and most of them are better suited for the small money investor than everything InteractiveBrokers has to offer. On top of that if you learn how to write simple code and connect a Jupiter Notebook to a website to pull data, your universe will be 100 times bigger and you will get results within a 10th of the time. If you hate textbooks and like games, try these: Blockchain → cryptozombies.io SQL → mystery.knightlab.com JavaScript → warriorjs.com Go → codingame.com Python → codedex.io CSS → cssbattle.dev Java → tynker.com Git → ohmygit.org Ruby → codewars.com Rust → codinggame.com Good Luck
I like the way you wrote this. I'm 4 years deeeep into my trading journey and only just starting to realize what the right side of the trend is. What's interesting is once you see this you start to ask, is everyone on one side elite takers making a killing and everyone else just turkeys? I would say kinda - depends on what the edge is and why. Risk premia I would say yeah option buyers are turkeys. Based on my studies 60% is roughly the maximum consistent return a trader taking optimal risk should be able to make a year, there's plenty of examples but it is extremely hard. So 20-30% is probably more reasonable and that is also extremely hard. If you go over 60% you either have incredible edge, inside knowledge, your sizing is fucked and you'll pay for it later, or just got plain lucky.
Problem is, if you do the monte Carlo simulations you can show that even with no edge, but good risk management, purely by chance 1% or more of retail traders could make it big, think they're a genius but actually have no real edge. That's why they eventually would loose it all. They know this (often) and pivot to selling courses or monetizing social media is about as clear a red flag as it gets. Not saying us bedroom traders can't make a consistent profit just watch out as stories are mainly intended to generate streaming revenue. Same reason all the bear porn is nonsense
Exactly, you don't even need to run a Monte Carlo simulation, Consider a break even system: which makes 9R profit 10% of the time, but loses 1R 90% of the time. If you start with $10,000 dollars, assuming the 10% win event happens each time: After 1 win you have 10K + 90K profit =100K After 2 wins you have 1million. After 3 wins you have 10million. After 4 wins you have 100million. For every 10,000 people who try that, 1 person on average out of 10,000 will end up with 100 million. The other 9,999 on average will lose 10K each. That 1 person if he is really greedy and feeling lucky (and he probably is very greedy if he gambled 10m to make 100m), could try it again in an attempt to reach billionaire status...
Well, I for one regret pursuing index futures and wouldn't recommend it to anyone starting out. It's probably the hardest way in the world to make consistent money. I missed that one. Did you exploit that loophole? I picked up that a few markets were banned from some of these firms recently, so I imagine that was why. I have had some success with Topstep this year day trading index futures, though, taking home huge multiples of the initial cost. Copy trading was the game changer on my end as it wouldn't be an attractive proposition trading only a single account. If I were to start all over again in this game I think I would first spend a few years to become a proficient and even professional coder. Then again, if I were to start all over again, I'm not even sure I would have. LOL. The OP is interesting as there's really no point to be trading actively unless you're making a killing or just otherwise love to play the markets (I know at least one guy who actually loves to trade on small size as a hobby like some others play videogames). Anyway, good and thoughtful post. I suppose it's still not too late for myself to find something easier than index futures.
what is edge? it is knowing when you have to sell and when you have to sell. there is lot of bullshit in financial knowledge: market is either trending or ranging. in reality it does both at the same time: if you understand this statement then you are well on the way to be a master of the market rather than the market being a master of you