Well basically what I was saying is it would be priced in as the event wouldn't just happen out of the blue. Traders would see the writing on the wall, the smarter the trader, the earlier they'll see it. For the long haul, your list is fine. I don't think the vix would work though, its only good when there exists a high degree of uncertainty. @VicBee made good points too.
US and Europe continuing to buy Russian oil and natural gas even now at full market price. That is not winning? Russia is raking in tens of billions in the process. Ukraine war can last another 10 years if Joe Biden wishes but, he will be out of office in 2025. Republicans would be under immense pressure to curtail excessive spending on Ukraine which is now at $54 billion and rising. Inflation is not going down because the Schumer bill will ramp up prices with their huge tax increases on US companies who will pass on the increased taxes in higher prices for US consumers. Once, the US cuts aid to Ukraine, the Ukraine war ends. I do not think it will reach 2025 but, end much sooner.
Russia lost back in February/March. Even if Russia can keep some of the areas it has taken in Crimea and Donbas, it has still lost the war from a larger perspective. The illusion of it being a major power is now gone and its economy will be diminished greatly for years to come. So, my point is that I'd be curious to know what investment actions to take knowing that Ukraine is going to win considering that the markets have mostly priced in this fact already.
IF you knew for a fact that Russia would win the event, It's hard for somma ya'lls to see that big ass IF and move on ain't it, lol.
I just cant imagine anyone thinking Russia cant dominate Ukraine if they wanted to. It's as if everyone is being fed propaganda...and believing it or something, idk...
Dammit, Janet! Politics is the place for that kinda crap. Take pissing contests over there pls. -- THEN what trading / investment actions would you take? Products? Positions? This question poses a What If Secnario and your Actions IF and WHEN you were made aware that this outcome is to be. This is a trading / investment question not a political question. IF you wanna root for one side or the other, IF you wanna justify your view, THEN the Politics forum linked below is the place you can do that to your heart's content. Russia & Ukraine - Discussion in 'Politics' link... https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/russia-ukraine.364278/
Just strategy, war tactics, b/c it's not only btw Russia and Ukraine, but btw Russia and the whole brainless Western idiots!... Russia plays chess, the Westerners can't play chess (they lack the mental capacity for deep thinking); they only can play checkers As can be seen, Russia's strategy is a wise strategy: let time work for Russia: the longer it takes, the better for Russia, as then Russia can, so to say, "kill 2+ birds with one stone"... Ie. let the Winter take avenge for the sanctions, incl. the high inflation. high energy and food bills in the West cause poverty and civilian unrest in many of these idiotic Western countries who w/o shame sanctioned and discriminated Russia and Russian people, even Russians living in the West, even rich people (aka "oligarchs")... They all have now seen & first hand experienced the true face of the West... So, what Russia does is a wise strategy, man, like in chess...