Obviously oil and gas would drop gradually, so shorting of them would make sense. But if the tensions btw China and US rise, then oil & gas would rise again. Similar situation for wheat and some metals, like titanium, which have developed similar to oil & gas. But I think with other "normal" Russian companies one should go Long, IMO. Rationale: many Russian exports now redirected to China b/c of discriminatory sanctions of the West. Also many investments from China in Russia. Ie. now a much better economic climate for Russian companies b/c of the huge potential in the big Chinese market. Bottom line: Russia is winning also on the economic front.
Yep. The country that cannot even produce white office paper, where vehicle production dropped 95% (!), and the remaining produced vehicles do not have ABS, auto transmissions or air bags, where the most advanced electronics they can manufacture are 90nm, where the tank factory had to close (during a war!) because of lack of foreign-produced parts... #winning.
Terr, It is obvious that you have no product / position response to the premise: IF you knew for a fact that Russia would win the event, It's a free country, Change a word or two in the title and Post up a thread for some other situation and scenario. That could actually be a significant contribution to ET Trading section. If you have something specific and relevant within the theme of this thread, post it. We care about your call in terms of Products? Positions? You have no product listed and no position. The rest is not about trading. Thanks man ... IF you knew for a fact that Russia would win the event, THEN what trading / investment actions would you take? Products? Positions? This is a trading / investment question not a political question. IF you wanna root for one side or the other, IF you wanna justify your view, THEN the Politics forum linked below is the place you can do that to your heart's content. Russia & Ukraine - Discussion in 'Politics' link... https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/russia-ukraine.364278/
Anywhere you take it within the scenario's parameters. 1) Product? 2) Position? See that first word there in the title? a great big IF? Politics? Put it in that section, the Politics section. There's no value in a pissing match to deflect from the simple 2 response items of interest. Thanks man, your input would be appreciated in this or in an opposite thread in this section. Start it up if that suits you.
Watch list: VIX options, Long oil and gas wheat some metals like titanium, "normal" Russian co's, Long
I've taken my position in wheat (on other threads here WEAT). I still feel the port of Odessa could be bombed at anytime by either side. Even after the war, the different ports in Ukraine could be bombed by either side...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-pals-furious-younger-russians-dont-want-to-die-in-ukraine That's "winning". Desperately scrambling to fool the youngsters that don't want to fight into dying for you in their tens of thousands. Because "If you have to die, you only have to do it once... This is a part of your duty as a citizen, as a soldier, as a warrior, as a Russian man."
Terr, what's the problem? Please take it up with the mods. Feedback Notify us of site problems, propose new site features, or submit constructive criticism. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/forums/feedback.11/ Politics goes in a different section. -- IF you knew for a fact that Russia would win the event, THEN what trading / investment actions would you take? Products? Positions? This is a trading / investment question not a political question. IF you wanna root for one side or the other, IF you wanna justify your view, THEN the Politics forum linked below is the place you can do that to your heart's content. Russia & Ukraine - Discussion in 'Politics' link... https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/russia-ukraine.364278/
I tend to be the guy spinning politics often, but ffs easy is asking a simple, straight forward question. Can you all not work in the abstract!?! While "Russia wins" needs to be properly defined, I will assume Ukraine gives up all territory already conquered. All infrastructure building companies and materials producers from Russia and China would benefit. Russian military manufacturing, oil and gas,.. post war reconstruction is a golden opportunity for China's suppliers and Russian labor. Ukraine would also benefit from reconstruction aid from European and US, which means China will win either way unless there are strict stipulations about materials sourcing. Also Europe will accelerate the process of admission to the EU and spend greatly on governance, standards, etc. Existing Ukranian goods will get pref import to Europe. Military industrial complex of US and Europe will laugh to the bank. When is the tough one... Perhaps spring/summer 2023. I'm not sophisticated enough with foreign markets trading to suggest how to maximize profits from above scenario.