If you don't read Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, you'll be a naive trader?

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by crgarcia, Nov 4, 2009.

  1. Rodion Romanovich Raskolnikov (Russian: Ðîäèîí Ðîìàíîâè÷ Ðàñêîëüíèêîâ) is the fictional protagonist of Crime and Punishment by Feodor Dostoevsky. The name Raskolnikov derives from the Russian raskolnik meaning "schismatic" (traditionally referring to a member of the Old Believer movement).
     
    #51     Nov 6, 2009
  2. He's not really russian either.
     
    #52     Nov 6, 2009
  3. Says the guy who gets banned each day and then comes back to follow every one of my posts to comment with a little tantrum :D

     
    #53     Nov 6, 2009
  4. Or two.
     
    #54     Nov 6, 2009
  5. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    I read both of his books. black Swan immediately after it came out.

    There are very few people who would be able to generate any $ based on what he wrote.

    The books were lots of fun to read and definitely open your eyes, but it does not mean you can make $ of his ideas.

    Taleb experienced his own black swan, when he closed Empirica, that is the absence of black swans for an extended period of time.

    Regards,
    redduke
     
    #55     Nov 6, 2009
  6. The book in one sentence:

    You just can't predict, those who keep trying to predict are either fools or liars.
     
    #56     Nov 9, 2009
  7. Success during the 2007-2008 financial crisis

    Taleb appeared to be vindicated against statisticians in 2008, as he reportedly made a multi-million dollar fortune during the financial crisis of 2007–2008, a crisis which he attributed to the failure of statistical methods in finance.[35][36] Universa, where Taleb is adviser, made returns of 65% to 115% in October 2008 in its approximately $2 billion “Black Swan Protection Protocol.” [37]

    Taleb's financial success coupled with his earlier predictions have seen him catapulted to prominence. He has appeared on numerous magazine covers and television shows to discuss his views [38][38] Taleb started being treated as a "rock star" in Davos 2009 in which he had harsh words for bankers.[39][40]

    In an article in The Times, Bryan Appleyard described Taleb as "now the hottest thinker in the world".[41] The Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman proposed the inclusion of Taleb's name among the world's top intellectuals, citing "Taleb has changed the way many people think about uncertainty, particularly in the financial markets. His book, The Black Swan, is an original and audacious analysis of the ways in which humans try to make sense of unexpected events." [42]

    In the wake of the economic crisis that started in 2008, Taleb become an activist for a "Black Swan robust society"
     
    #57     Nov 9, 2009