If you could KIND OF predict turning points, could the remainder be done with money management?

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by 1a2b3cppp, Jan 28, 2018.

  1. speedo

    speedo

    Depends on what you mean by "turning point". If you are referring to picking tops and bottoms of significant runs, that's a tough game but there are some who do it well. Most of my trades are trend pullback entries and as such, I am anticipating price to turn back in the direction of the trend as defined by my time frames. For this or ANY methodology, position (money) management is critical.
     
    #11     Jan 29, 2018
  2. If you could predict direction correctly, even something like 65% of the time, you could rule the world eventually because of all the money you would make.
     
    #12     Jan 29, 2018
  3. speedo

    speedo

    This is something which also requires a definitive context. The great majority of my entries go in my desired direction after entry, however of these trades, some will result in a gain, some will come back and scratch me out and some will come back and result in a loss. Trade management is key.
     
    #13     Jan 29, 2018
  4. tomorton

    tomorton


    I can, that's a trend, and I will........
     
    #14     Jan 29, 2018
    Cat88 likes this.
  5. just21

    just21

    Use short options if you are imprecise.
     
    #15     Jan 30, 2018
  6. Of course that wouldn't be possible.


    What you describe is exactly what I am talking about.

    Creating the position on the turn.
     
    #16     Jan 30, 2018
  7. I think selecting turning points is probably possible on short term and long term for different reasons.
     
    #17     Jan 30, 2018
  8. donchian channels
    VWAP
    ATR
    Trendlines
    S/R levels
    volume/market profile
    EMA crossovers at the above levels

    All help for picking turning points (statistical outliers). A pure efficient trader will will end up selling peaks and buying valleys..everyone else who trades in the middle is fighting with each other.. (consolidations)
     
    #18     Jan 30, 2018
  9. outliers
     
    #19     Jan 30, 2018
  10. How does this differ from scaling into a position? I am seriously asking, I don't know much about options.
     
    #20     Jan 30, 2018