If you could KIND OF predict turning points, could the remainder be done with money management?

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by 1a2b3cppp, Jan 28, 2018.

  1. Imagine for a moment that markets could give you a suggestion of what they were about to do on a tiny timeframe, sporadically, when price hits certain points.
     
  2. Overnight

    Overnight

    Long-term time-frames cannot tell you what will happen on shorter time-frames.

    "If you could KIND OF predict turning points, could the remainder be done with money management?"

    I don't think it could.

    Your user name sounds like a self-destruct code for the Enterprise from an old Star Trek movie. If so I like the reference!
     
  3. Making money on the long term trading is more a function of what you do with your trades after you have entered than when you enter.

    Maybe a more suitable title would be "if you could KIND OF predict turning points, could the remainder be done withOUT money management?" to which the answer would most certainly be NO.

     
    Cat88 and tommcginnis like this.
  4. Thank you. *Somebody* had to say it. :p
     
  5. My clarifying question to the OP would be "...the rest of *what*???"
    Has a position been *entered* on the turn? Or is it that a prior, trend-based *entry* is in fact looking for an out?? Dunno!
     
  6. For the most part, the market does kind of give you a subtle hint, or two, when its daily macro move is about to shift. -- If you know, of course, what to loosely, generally look for and expect based on your assumptions and a combination of other dynamic variables.

    The best traders know and realize and sense this.
    Even if you are an absolutely horrible, shakey, mentally unstable trader...you can still kind of semi-win overall with good money and trade management.
     
  7. I was watching this on Samsung 360 powered by Galaxy Note 8. The cordless feature is versatile. Some of the VR videos are amazing. PS4 VR cords really hinder mobility.

    So yes all you need are high probability turning points... ‘high probability turning points’ in the context of factors that increase the probability. In this instance it was very heavily sold USD going into FOMC week.

    Porting ThinkorSwim and TeamViewer through it. I wish I could design a 3D version of price action where your immersed.
     
  8. If you look at this TOS chart, the turning points are linear regression break or trend line break of the lower and lower peaks. Plus the floor at 1350.

    So a break implies a test of the highs (trend line) the floor break at 1350 implies much much lower prices.

    If you look at the Majors:FX, they are very overbought.
     
  9. Handle123

    Handle123

    I go by volume and turns of MACD/divergence plus checking monthly of good support in 15 area in GE, charting showed a clear H&S topping patterns monthlies and now down 50%, so today of hedging open profits and /or doing some Call debit spread looking for pop to ultimately look the sell rally. I think many don't look at monthlies, but can aid in the dailies, and possible intraday leaning to the upside.

    upload_2018-1-29_6-34-7.png

    upload_2018-1-29_6-36-46.png
     
  10. tomorton

    tomorton

    Chasing turning points and focusing on shorter time-fame charts and faster pay-back times are how new traders go broke.

    Well, alright, not all new traders. Just about 90%.
     
    #10     Jan 29, 2018