#1: Ignore anyone who eschews technical analysis... those aliases are 100% sure losers in due time. Trading "common sense = thought = logic & emotions = gut feelings" are 1,000% a net-loss process over time. #2: Ignore most of the shit you read in public message boards... most of it is regurgitated falsehoods from perpetual loser to the next perpetual loser. #3: Buy & hold works all the time is a loser's mantra... it only works during certain periods in time, masked by the illusions of Dow and S&P indexes' constantly rejuggled components to perpetuate that illusion. #4: Trade the trend, believe what you see on the chart. #5: cut losses short = let winners run. #6: Don't second guess your proven method. Don't assume you have a proven method because someone shared it with you for free. #7: Pay most attention to the veteran posters on message boards... if their join date is 2013 or newer, advice is less than worthless. ** That covers the most important stuff.
Quote from failed_trad3r: swing trading. I should tell myself to quit daytrading and not waste 2 years of my life daytrading. daytrading is such a waste of time. He/she should have given it 1 more day.
Not quite. If one trades price, whatever edge he may have will never fail. If it does, he never had an edge in the first place.
Aside from the obvious things that eventhough they are obvious most still do: "No cash without an edge" "Skip simulator due to no thrill" etc. I would have skipped every damned indicator known to man and just learn the ways of price, volume and the imperative usages of multi timeframes. Volume is something most don't get and eventhough it's very helpful, it's not required to succeed. Knowing the ways of price action has worked since the beginning of the markets, no such thing as dying edge when you got a real one.
No edge persists continuously without pause, at least in short term trading. This is why you have people who argue that T/A and trendfollowing isn't an edge because you can always find a time when they won't work. Everything works at some point until it doesn't, even the most ridiculous price strategy you can think of. Trading isn't completely random because any strategy permutation will eventually work for a nonrandom period of time, until it doesn't. And something not working now almost always means it will work at some future time. One can argue that investing in the S&P500 dollar cost avg like a 401k every month for 40 years will always net positive, and big. But this is a trading thread.
Ahhh, what indicator has produced more profits than all the others put together? Correct, trend following. What is the best way to catch a trend and stay with it? What will produce at the end of every week the largest chunk of intraday trends into the profit column after deduction all losers and commission costs? The answer is well known but is so darn simple many believe it just "can't be that freaking easy" Correct, the answer is to work the TREND of the 20 ema. Keyword = the trend of it. 45 degree angle is telling you to only use WITH TREND trades. Flat 20 means "go fish" if you are smart. When the 20 is changing direction you do not take every simple change, you watch and give price (in ES) approx. 3 handles to show true colors, believe me 3 handles of price movement and showing the 20 signaling a change in direction will draw attention, that is what you want==== FRIENDS to push you along as you anticipate this. Trading in a nutshell does not require a so-called edge, that is silly, all trading needs is a way to milk the intraday trends for enough gravy to cover your losers and cover commission costs. Trend following via the 20 "angel" or eyeballing must have a proven method to overcome those darn whipsaws, whipsaws will never be eliminated and must be expected as a normal cost of doing business. That is it boys and girls, "simple is, as simple does" If I really went back in time and had to distill 3 items that destroyed the boogeyman of trading it had to be: 1. Electronic futures platforms and the speed of order entry/exit. On the phone before then it was a bear. 2. OCO or bracket order entry, fantastic way to get rid of emotional trades with pre-placed orders, you could reduce the stop but not increase/cancel stops. 3. The exponential moving average == THAT is the HOLY GRAIL, when mastered. Love this game.......... I have a secret goal to be accomplished within the next 2 years.........it WILL HAPPEN......... Time for football, .... PS: Mere trend lines alone are NOT GOOD ENOUGH for a trend following strategy because trend lines change to freaking much.......a 45 degree 20 ema is the BEST trend line ever created with a computer, LOL!!
That is no longer true (even if it ever was), the mkt's these days are far more complicated than in the past. A buy and hold strategy is old fashioned at best. Today, to use a worn out acronym: Stocks take the stairs up and take the elevator down. Money is made by timing the mkt correctly or having a macro strategy that is more often right than wrong. TIMING IS EVERYTHING,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Well my point was tangent, but if you picked any level on the dow jones or s&p in the history of american capital markets, and dollar cost averaged monthly unmargined for 40+ years you will have always made money and big. But that isn't trading. It's investing