This does not apply to long-term position traders or CTA's...but to you short term traders. How many of you out there write dutifully in your journal, "Wait until a clear trend has developed, and get in on that." Or, "Don't fight the trend?" Yet time and again, you wait and wait for confirmation, only to get confirmation that the trend has ended 25 ticks after you got in it. If you can see the trend on a short-term basis, it's probably close to being - or already - over. A few lucky ones will get the gut feeling a trend is developing and will get in; a small percentage of those will get out with profits...a few more will get out for a scratch, but most will lose money. For the rest of you, you're waiting until the trend is *obvious*, and you get your a$$es handed to you. For you, it's really just a question of how good your money management is...will you take a small loss, or a big one? I have my own contrarian views which I put to work. I have found in my own work that "the trend" is something that should be taking you out of a position...not something that needs to occur to give you a reason to get in a trade. Every turning point in the market should be a reason to get into a position. You should not care "why" the market is turning - because in reality, it doesn't matter. Maybe it's a pivot point. Perhaps resistance. Maybe some fib line. The point is, it doesn't make a difference. The market is turning, you should be in on it. At this point, there's a good % of your trades that you'll get stopped out on (assuming you know how to stop yourself out correctly). A few more will result in scratch profits. But it's those precious few that develop into something big - something where you're holding on to your nice chunky position and you're now scaling out, while everybody else is twiddling their thumbs waiting for their magic oscillator or "trend confirmer" to flash green. So many of you out there trade like a "smart bomb" - that is, I've gotta develop this hyper-expensive system that flies over a target from 50,000 feet and drops a multi-million dollar payload on a 1 square yard target. Few of you realize that mines - the simple instrument of war that is triggered simply by pressure or motion - kill far more people. Keep it simple. Get in as much as you can. Have the discipline to stop yourself out for the next trade. Once in a while, you'll be rewarded with the big one... Happy Friday!