I think 96.25 may have been my spot, but I did not do so well today as I might have done. I did one trade, it was a short, it was too late, I went in at the market as the offer kept dropping without me. Once in I just felt off balance. I was now managing a position from an entry level 2 points below my original order. Price was moving my way but I knew that I wasn't at the top of my game. Just over two minutes after entering, I took myself out with a market order. I tried to gather my thoughts, but I could tell I was no good for this game today. So I called my first customer, and arranged to start work early. The good news is I was able to finish work early and I went out and bashed a bucket of balls at the driving range, and now I am home. The best laid plans ... On the chart below, the red filled a black X is where I tried to short. The open red is where I finally did get a fill, at 99.50 more or less, and then the black is where I exited. There was no price activity reason for me to exit. It was simply that I felt I was not in control of what I was doing. I know I can't control the market, but I can control my response to it. And once I felt like it was controlling me, I got out. It seems to happen once or twice a week where I just do not feel I know what is going on or what I should do. And if I do not know what I should do, I go do something else Also, I did slap my blotter right on the chart. I know I said I wasn't going to post my blotter again, but having missed this rally, I didn't want one of our "friends" to come along and suggest that I was trying to hide a booboo, doing perhaps what DbPhoenix had warned against: Shorting every retrace up. I did do that once several months ago right here in this journal. Fortunately it only took two of those "pick the topfor me to figure out I was being a dumbdumb, and DbPhoenix and NoDoji made helpful suggestions to cure me of that disorder. Also, you might see that this is a 30 second chart. I chose to post this bar interval becasue I thought it might make it easier for some to see why I had wanted to short were I did, and why I was "willing" to chase (dumbdumb). Price opened above 3100, and made it as high 103.50 before retracing to 101.75. A small retrace, and things looked ok for the longs. I say "ok" because though price was above 3100 and though it had reached 3103.5, it did not do so with a lot of energy. Even the 30 second chart makes the open look to be more of a victory for the bulls than it was. If you can go to a tic chart and play back the first 2-3 minutes from 9:30 on you will see what I mean. Those static dead bar intervals on a chart conceal alot of action. Price rose back to 103 and then paused. In fact, I had placed a buy stop at103.25, and that was in part why I was late to get my sell stop in. However, clearly things were not all well in Bullville, as price lost that 103 and couldn't get it back. Once 101.75 was lost, a short seemed appropriate. And that's that. Not my best day. I still made about a half a week's worth of income at my regular trade for that 2 minute engagement, but as for the rest, let it be filed under what DbPhoenix calls "shouldacouldawoulda" and leave it at that.
It appears that that afternoon downdraft had to do with Apple. Don't know why. But NQ buyers clearly saw it as an opportunity to buy, or to buy more. You just never know.
I would have waited until the previous swing high were taken out and entered after the 950 bar. To my way of thinking, there could easily have been a second leg to the opening down thrust to test 88. That possibility lessens in my mind after a HH is made. I was watching the 1025 sideways movement live and saw no determination in price action to take it down or up. Instead, it seemed to be a pause and of late, these pauses tend to carry on in the same direction from whence they came. Even at 1048, there was no follow through or conviction in the price action. And after all, the trend was still up.
Thanks for the reply. I did read the thread and I find that much of what you say is consistent with my own thoughts, though I have trouble staying in focus. I also tend to trade primarily pullbacks. I am often quite good at picking reversals, the initial breakout and what I call a shakeout that tends to be a stronger clean out of stops before a continuation of the reversal move. However, I have a fault that makes me more and more stay away from trading reversals. That is, that I will keep playing for a reversal when it has become obvious to everyone else in that world that we are in chop or a range before a continuation. That is the way I am, so I do better just trading with more clear trends on retracements. From years of study, I find that my highest percentage win trades are with clear pullbacks to suppport or resistance levels. In strong trends (higher angle of departure) I will often draw a minor trendline along the retracement and enter on a break. If I can just learn to stay out of chop, I would do ok. Thanks again, BMW
Hello Dbphoenix. I read part of that journal you mentioned & some of your other writings. You are extremely knowledgeable & an excellent writer. Have you ever stated anywhere who the heck you are in real life? I always read a bunch of garbage & questionable stuff on the internet, then every once in a while I'll read something from somebody that really impresses me. Any chance of getting a little biographical information? Are you the reincarnation of Jesse Livermore?
Levels for observation. pre market/ Overnight high low yesterdays high low hinge with midline Have to run out for a bit , be back 9:15 to catch the open