Absolutely enlightening, what was posted in terms of stops - thanks! In regards to the demons, the ugly fear of losing is a strange chap. From my experience it is about the loss in general - aka attacking the ego - and not so much about the amount itself. Of course once the account is gone, it's over. But in realtime it is a loss and every loss is a pain untill one is able to adopt that losing smal l(and winning bigger) is an opportunity itself. This is a process im in as well. To be continued with the even uglier fear of missing out... I would like to post an example within the context, which shows how alert one has to be - specially if trading the wrong direction. On the chart we have - as far as I believe - a level which qualifies as one. Price comes down, waves get shorter etc. and one could possibly take the trade. But then after the it seems to take of, it reverses all of a sudden. I was only observing this, but having the daily back in the downward channel and a break out from a hinge and a level which was tested before should tell the trader something maybe... Also one notices that the break of support happens on very low volume...
We do this because we believe -- or want to believe -- that we can. Same reason we walk into a casino. When we are then presented with evidence that maybe we can't, there is at the very least a readjustment to expectations. Sometimes a blow to the ego, depending on how emotionally stable the individual is. Sometimes a devastating blow. Therefore, anyone who thinks that the solution lies in slapping an MA on the chart or trading a different bar interval just doesn't understand what's going on. At some point one has to ask himself OK, Ace, just who the hell do you think you are? Eventually, it is to be hoped, one realizes that while he is in complete control of how to play the hand, the market is the dealer. This injects a necessary dose of humility. While the notion of what goes up must come down may work in many applications, it does not necessarily work in the markets. If it did, the Dow would still be at 40. Price moves because traders are trading, and bots notwithstanding, traders are people, and people behave in expected ways. Here you had an excellent move to and above 3100. Yes, price could reach an apogee and fall to earth like a spent rocket, but the market is not subject to the laws of gravity. Traders may have other plans. The hinge is a sign of this, which is why looking at it as nothing more than a pattern won't help the trader much in terms of making a trading decision. The hinge exists because traders are looking for -- and in the process, determining -- a new value level. If they weren't, the hinge would never form. The hinge therefore is a kind of reset, and whatever came before is not necessarily pertinent to what happens after due to the task that traders are performing. In short, all bets are off. Therefore, in these cases one must abandon whatever biases he may have or have had and let the market tell him what to do. If he doesn't understand what the market is telling him, then he should back off and just listen until the sense of it becomes clear. If one is the corporate sort, he might think of the hinge as a closed meeting. Once the meeting is over, the rank-and-file finds out what conclusions were reached in the meeting by what the participants then do. The participants exit and go about their business according to those conclusions, and in this case, those conclusions were to head downward. Whether these decisions make sense to the trader or upset his plans in any way is entirely beside the point.
I will not be trading today unless the sky's open up with yet another deluge, ruining my plans for an early weekend kick-off. I am going to make two posts, showing essentially the same thing. First the usual hourly chart with relevant levels noted.
And here is the same NQ, same levels, but viewing a 120 minute bar interval and zooming out to get a more panoramic view of where price is relative to where it has been for much of the last two months.
It's still hard to determine the difference in between plan and bias, but it's getting better. With the intention of gaining orientation I'm attaching a quick "roadmap". It might sound stupid, but with several pictures in mind - also Wyckoff I believe - could this be - in variations of course - what the trader should have to realize. Changes at Levels, depth of retracements, strength or weakness in general... Don't get me wrong, what I'm trying to achieve is simplification and orientation which sets free capacities which can be filled with a free perspective in terms of price action - specially at vital areas. And of course what is a micro chart here can also be a macro...
Determining the line of least resistance is not the same as developing a bias. Bias involves ego. There's no ego in determining the LOLR. I always start with the daily, and according to the daily, we're going sideways, and even developing a trading range. 3100 is the midpoint of that range, and we just left that. So I move to the hourly. The hourly shows a series of lower highs after yesterday's peak and a couple of tests of 88. Therefore, I won't be doing anything unless and until we reach 88. If we test 3100 again, we'll see how that works out. But, otherwise, I just sits and I waits for the market to tell me what to do. But then I'm not as addicted to this as so many people are.
The chat is open if anyone wants to join, will be trading CL and watching NQ. http://stinto.net/en/chat.htm?refId=srtz5#
Took a short off the open to test 88 as you metioned. Am holding for a test of 84 now. edit: I know you said you wouldn't do anything until price got to 88. Just mentioned the trade bc you had already thrown 88 out there since it was tested a few times overnight.
exited at 78. Was holding for 72-73 but have to leave. Have a good Friday and holiday (US anyway) weekend everyone.
I suggest that those of you who are still at the Cat On A Hot Tin Roof stage write down in detail what you did or think you should have done from the 0935 bar forward. This is what the journal is for, and if you don't do it, you'll be stuck here for the foreseeable future.