Slugar, there is a process to learning this. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/15896-how-do.html http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/15535-developing-plan-trading-journal.html You can follow the plan and have a real chance of figuring this out in months rather than years; or you caan keep doing what everyone else seems to do and spend the next decade wondering why you're not getting it. For example, you asked "how to know in real time." There is no way of knowing anything. This is a kinda game of chance. The idea is to find trades where the probability of one thing happening is greater than any of the alternatives. This is where S & R come in: You can't worry about all the transactions that are taking place evru moment of the session. If a lower low occurs during a rally, but it is well below any nearby apparent R, then it may be a reversal, but it may just be a bit more of a apullback. Who knows? It is a 50/50 shot. So what do you do? Nothing at all. There is always a trade, but not the trade you want. Stand aside. Now, if it is a reversal, then your next opportunity to look for a trade will be when price declines to an S level. If it is not a reversal, you will know soon enough, because the rally toward R will resume. If you spend the time to learn how price behaves, then this gets much easier. For example, everyday, before the market opens, I can pretty much tell you what two trades are most likely for me to take - a long & a short, where they each would take place, and probably a price range where I will be getting filled. Today things almost got away from me, but if you read my notes and look at the charts I posted this morning at least 60-90 minutes before the open, you should be able to see what the plan should have been. If you are trading without a plan, you are just gambling. Perhaps this is all gambling. But you can gamble with an edge or you can gamble blindly. I see a lot of message board traders who seem to be doing a lot of flying blind, rather than circling the field, observing the activity below, and planning where they will land safely in that activity.
you forgot one...and you also have to buy dbPhoenix's book...you know,...the master guru trader who never calls anything in real-time...not even one single trade...because he's too afraid the sheeple may see that he's the wizard of oz....you know the guy who makes a bazillion dollars from trading but has to sell a $30 ebook online just to make money...that guy that's what this whole thread is ultimately about...selling his $30 ebook :eek:
As 40d says in another way, if you've been trading demo for a couple of years, you're spinning your wheels. You seem not to be following the process I outlined in what I provided you regarding journals and creating a trading plan. One guy I became aware of got it four years ago and never looked at it. He still can't even reach breakeven. You can continue spinning your wheels for another year or two or five, or you can start again and begin perhaps to make some progress (not everybody gets it no matter what). But whatever you choose to do, remember when people start giving you advice that nearly all traders fail, so you have absolutely no way of knowing whether any of that advice is worth anything or not until you've studied it, tested it, developed a plan with it, traded it sim and for real and make a consistent profit with it. Trading a certain way just because somebody who sounds like they know what they're talking about suggests it is a sure ticket to failure.
I understand more about this than you think I do but I thought the purpose of this thread was to help people with this method. I get most of what you are talking about but I'm struggling with an exact trading plan because to me so much of this is subjective.
I can't help anybody who hasn't been through the process, and you haven't been through the process. If you want to begin, then open up a journal and get started. If you don't want to do that, then a patchwork of answers to your questions will accomplish nothing. You must understand the law of supply and demand, support and resistance, and trend before you can begin to understand the auction market. And if you don't understand the auction market, you will fail. Doesn't matter how many years you spend beating your head against the glass thinking that you're "doing the work". You will fail. If you refuse to fail, then do what's necessary to succeed.
I have his book. I couldn't tell you how much I had paid for it. I guess it was $30. And your problem with that is what? Go to the Wyckoff forum, and you can find every lesson in the eBook in some form or the other there for free. When there are so many "gurus," as you call them, out for real money - books costing many multiples of DbPhoenix's, monthly subscription services, trading boot camps, online schools costing hundreds and even thousands of dollars, why do you come here and stalk DbPhoenix over a paltry $30? Jeesh, I pay more than $30 most days in commissions anymore. $30 is less than 2 NQ points, and it is less than 3 ticks in the ES. I would be embarrassed to come to a big time trading message board and make such a hue and cry over $30. Thankfully this is all anonymous, so that saves me from having to be embarrassed for you. DbPhoenix has taken his time to write a book that explains in terms even a simple guy like me can understand how to approach learning how to markets work. Do you do so poorly trading that the only thing that makes you feel good about yourself is to come here once a week to beat a dead horse? Do you have so little experience with money that $30 seems and exhorbitant price for an author to charge for solid information? Even though that author then provides ongoing support and advice for free to anyone who puts forth real effort to learn the stuff? And consider this: He will offer his help to anyone who starts and keeps a trade journal, and he does not require they purchase the book in order to get the help. In fact, when I first contacted him about buying the book, he sent me a few sample chapters and told me to read them first before deciding whether I really wanted to buy it. Why do you do this? I can't even imagine having so little to occupy my time and my mind that I'd be happy take even a few seconds, let alone minutes to post lame, insulting rants on an anonymous internet message board.
I wish! 71 during the 9:53 bar interval. That was my only trade for the day. This has gotten easier for me, but there are still times when I can't figure out what is going on. And if I feel like I have no idea what is going on, I stop.