If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

Discussion in 'Journals' started by dbphoenix, Jun 28, 2013.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. forty, how many cars are you trading at a time? just curious. thanks.
     
    #531     Aug 20, 2013
  2. fortydraws

    fortydraws

    Usually 1 or 2, but sometimes as many as 5 contracts at an inital entry, and then 1 or 2 if I add-on to a trade in progress. I think ultimatley I'd like to get up to 10-15.
     
    #532     Aug 21, 2013
  3. fortydraws

    fortydraws

    Here is a two part chart. On the left, I have superimposed a tick chart on top of the one minute chart. The tick chart shows the same sequence of trade as shown on the one minute bars to the right.

    Note that price traded up to that 77.50 level that has now had reason to be mentioned four days in a row here. It is a level at which one might anticipate some R. I wanted to post something like this to try to show what DbPhoneix means when he refers to the continuous nature of price movement or trade.

    You see, a trader who trades by price could watch the one minute chart, as I do, but what he is "seeing" in a way, is the activity that you see on the tick chart. If you cannot see a reason to get short near that 77.50 line by looking at that tic chart then you are not reading price. You might think you are, but you are probably reading bars, I suppose.

    Had this been during NY hours, I would have entered short somewhere between 77.50 and down to perhaps 76.50. 76.75 would have been likely.

    Think about this activity this way: On the second trade at 77.75, someone bought, and someone sold. The next seller was unable to get a higher price, or even the same price. Demand was not there. Buyers were not willing to keep paying up,. In fact, not only were buyers not willing to pay up, subsequent sellers had to settle for less and less. How many times have you sat there at your screen trying to get that last tick, urging price upward, and finally you threw in the towel and took the lower price? It happens all day long. That is what is happening all over any chart, "inside the bars." The bars don't signal a trade is available, people do.

    This is where S/R come in - this activity is taking place all day long all across the range of transactions. But the odds of getting the direction right is only going to tilt in your favor if you wait for those brief moments when price approaches a level that lots of eyeballs are also looking at and ready to do something at.

    Now, pull up your own 5 minute chart. Someone who trades 5 minute bars may also have looked at this as a short opportunity. But from what I have read here and at other trading message boards, these traders would be waiting for the break of the low of the 8:06-8:10 five minute bar to enter, or 76. So, you can at least see the advantage of someone trading by price. When the bar trader is getting out on an immediate reaction, my limit order is getting filled if it wan't filled when the stop was triggered. When the five minute bar trader's breakeven stop is getting filled, I am never in the red for even a tick, as my entry is at least a half point or more higher than the bar trader's.

    That is all I have time for this morning.
     
    #533     Aug 21, 2013
  4. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Anyone who wants to avoid spending the time and taking the trouble to read the Wyckoff Forum at TL could just copy the above post and study it.

    No, trading is not easy. But it is simple.
     
    #534     Aug 21, 2013
  5. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Two aspects of this morning's chart that are worth noting: (1) we are in the process of forming a hinge that began Monday morning and (2) a resistance line can be drawn beginning with yesterday's high. Since all of this is taking place at resistance (3100), this behavior assumes added significance.

    Also note that the hinge may be invalidated if price drops below 68.
     
    #535     Aug 21, 2013
  6. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    #536     Aug 21, 2013
  7. fortydraws

    fortydraws

    Just one quick rule breaking post while trading: Has anyone else here seen the movie Groundhog Day?
     
    #537     Aug 21, 2013
  8. fortydraws

    fortydraws

    You just can't make this stuff up ... How can I post a loser when I am allowed to use the same play book over and over? Eventually the market will throw me a curve ball and I will swing and miss, but not this morning.

    I am really out of here now until tonight. I hope everyone, everyone has a profitable day here.
     
    #538     Aug 21, 2013
  9. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Fewer than ten per cent of those who view 40's charts are snarks. That means that over ninety per cent are at least open-minded enough to look. I'd say that's pretty good.
     
    #539     Aug 21, 2013
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Price got within a couple of points of the top of the hinge. I'll call that good enough for now.
     
    #540     Aug 21, 2013
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.