If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

Discussion in 'Journals' started by dbphoenix, Jun 28, 2013.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    I try. With all the different time zones that people operate in, doing these conversions can be a real PIA. Chart sites in particular ought to convert their services to EDT, but they don't. So while I try, I can't guarantee that I won't fk up.
     
    #351     Jul 26, 2013
  2. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    That's fine. I sent it, but my email account shows no record of it's having been sent. So I wanted to double-check. Will try again.
     
    #352     Jul 26, 2013
  3. pdfs received! Thanks DBP
     
    #353     Jul 26, 2013
  4. niko

    niko

    Db,

    How dooes one avoid getting trapped in a hinge entering before the break of the last swing high, is it something about the behaviour of price or volume previous to the entry or one just closes the trade after price fails to break above the last swing high?
     
    #354     Jul 26, 2013
  5. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    B. This is a case of The Dog That Didn't Bark. You expect price to breach the last swing high or you wouldn't be in the trade in the first place. If it doesn't, why stay in? Hope, i.e., fear of missing out.

    Remember that this is a low-risk, high win-rate approach. That's why "expectancy" is irrelevant. If it's not shaping up the way you expect it to, get out. You can always get back in if conditions improve. Take, for example, the higher low at 1100 this morning. Note also that when the trade is right, price rarely looks back.
     
    #355     Jul 26, 2013
  6. DBP -

    I'm interested in participating in the thread. I'm way back on page 18 but if I want to post charts do they need to be daily/hourly/1 min? I'd prefer to post tick charts for the lowest time frame as the lulls are generally compressed but I'll do what ever is required.
     
    #356     Jul 26, 2013
  7. Gringo

    Gringo

    You're most welcome to use the tick chart. Db I think also uses the tick chart for entry and exit decisions as well. The fundamental principles are the same regardless of the bar interval chosen.

    Gringo
     
    #357     Jul 27, 2013
  8. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Tick, hourly, weekly, bar, line, it's all the same trend. But keep the distinction between "timeframe" and "bar interval" in mind. From this point to that point is a timeframe (from this Tuesday to next Friday). How you illustrate it is a bar interval (1t, 7m, 4h, etc).
     
    #358     Jul 27, 2013
  9. niko

    niko

    Thank you, there must be something I am not paying attention to during backtesting, I have so far focused on the HL or LH setups, but always waited for the break of LSH or LSL, wich is not exactly a low risk setup.

    I will go back to the observation phase and see what I can find.
     
    #359     Jul 27, 2013
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Perhaps you're thinking too much in terms of "setups". Look instead at what traders are doing and why they're doing it. If, for example, price hits resistance and drops back, then traders try for a higher high and fail, that means something. Or if they fall back and make a higher low then try for the top of the range again, that also means something, and there's no compelling reason to wait for a breakout before entering the trade. The fact that they're trying at all after having just failed is important. And, yes, they may fail yet again, but by that time you will be at least at breakeven and can exit quickly if they find they just can't break through resistance no matter what.

    On the flip side, the fact that they've tried at least twice now and just don't have what it takes to break through implies that a reversal entry is higher probability than it would have been after the first attempt.

    It might help to use a 30s or 15s bar interval and set your replay at no more than 2x. I know it can be boring, but rushing through it is of not much more benefit than not doing it at all.
     
    #360     Jul 27, 2013
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.