If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

Discussion in 'Journals' started by dbphoenix, Jun 28, 2013.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    It's not so much a matter of minutes as it is a measure of volatility, so to speak. The NQ is tied -- though not always tightly -- to the NDX, which is made up of 100 stocks, and since stocks trade primarily during the NY session, the volume comes pouring in at the NY open. But you know all that.

    Point is that when all the volume comes in, it necessarily has an effect on the futures price, which will typically -- or I should say traders will typically -- search for the limits of both buying interest and selling interest, i.e., just how much are buyers willing to pay and just how much are sellers willing to settle for. This creates a sort of "bracket" within which traders scrimmage until somebody decides to run for daylight. Buyers may be rejected at the OH and return to what may become a trading range, or sellers may be rejected at the OL and also return to what may become a trading range. Or one or the other may have enough torpedoes in their tubes to bust through this opening range and make things happen, which is a whole new management issue.

    But, as I said, you know all this. I assume you're asking in order to find out if there's some sort of codified system, like ORB. There isn't. It's a matter of observing buyers and sellers and trying to determine what each camp wants and how badly they want it. If neither wants anything very badly, then it's time to eat your cereal before it gets soggy.
     
    #261     Jul 22, 2013
  2. I'm just asking because I've seen maybe a dozen new acronyms introduced in the thread with no prior definition.
     
    #262     Jul 22, 2013
  3. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    I agree it can become almost a secret language. But one of the more important motives behind the thread is to communicate, so I'll ask those who participate to avoid the abbreviations and acronyms -- including me -- and spell things out.

    Too bad the ET software won't finish words like retracement and reversal and breakout for you :)
     
    #263     Jul 22, 2013
  4. fortydraws

    fortydraws

    DbPhoenix - going over the chart this evening, I think I would have taken a short at about 50.75 during the 9:38 bar after buyers failed to maintain their enthusiasm that looks as though it spiked price above the overnight/premarket high, and failed at that level to make another run higher. I would have closed it at 43.50, the high of the 9:49 bar after an apparent attempt by buyers to post a higher low and higher high after price seemed to be finding support in the area of the premarket low.

    Is that about the tradeable range you are talking about, or am I looking at this wrong? Thank you!
     
    #264     Jul 22, 2013
  5. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    It's a legit trade, but be careful about couldawouldashoulda.
     
    #265     Jul 22, 2013
  6. Gringo

    Gringo

    SLV is bouncing from support at 18 from 2010. It has also broken the supply line and is trying to get to 20 or 21. Will price be successful in getting there? We don't know yet. The only thing we do know is that it's time to pay attention.

    20-21 could be an opportunity to re-short. Although it's late in the game to be shorting due to higher probability of a snap upside move.

    We could also wait for a retracement closer to 18 for a possible long (gulp!).

    Or price might just drift aimlessly sideways for months. Notice the test as identified on the weekly chart to have come after half a year.

    Lets talk a bit about the volume. There seems to be an absence of a single week that could be categorized as being climactic. However, the higher volume on several occasions could in totality be close to being climactic. These 3 or so higher volume drops are comparable to other turning points at the bottom of the 26 - 34 trading range as far as volume is concerned. It certainly doesn't mean it's the bottom or we're even close to it. But it is a used here for comparison purposes. It's all getting unnecessarily complicated. Better is to focus on the price and deduce from there what's the most likely course of action. Volume at times can cause confusion if we try to read too much into it.

    Lets get to the chart:


    [​IMG]


    Gringo

    Note: I've been unable to figure out how to post more than one chart per post. Daily chart will have to wait until I get accustomed to the procedures.
     
    #266     Jul 22, 2013
    Buy1Sell2 likes this.
  7. Gringo

    Gringo

    Here's the daily chart for posterity. It's easier to see the current price behaviour using dailies instead of the weekly.

    Most post in this journal are shorter term and I am not even sure I should be posting in Db's journal but then again, I know he'll cut me some slack as he always has in the past. Die hard fans like me are hard to come by now a days :)


    [​IMG]

    Gringo
     
    #267     Jul 22, 2013
    Buy1Sell2 likes this.
  8. fortydraws

    fortydraws


    It was only half a couldawouldashoulda cause I actually did take the entry. The exit was screwed because I had a (rookie mistake :confused: ) uncancelled buy limit at 45 (I tried to buy a retrace 9:29/9:30 that did not occur - until later :eek: ) and that limit order was filled as price fell after I shorted.

    I was asking tonight because I was going over the chart and trying to determine exactly what you considered the tradable range. The 43.50 exit was my "guess" at trying to determine the tradeable range you mentioned.
     
    #268     Jul 22, 2013
  9. niko

    niko

    Great to see you back in the game.
     
    #269     Jul 23, 2013
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    I was referring to the range or distance from low to high, not a trading range. By "tradeable" I mean something that's longer and wider than a scalp, i.e., something that's worth bothering with. A 4pt trading range, for example, is for me not tradeable.
     
    #270     Jul 23, 2013
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.