Today´s trades: 1. Sellers cant break S at the open and buyers hold prices above the LSL 2. Same as 1, but then price stalls and i decide to close and wait for clarity. 3. Buyers manage to break 79 after holding the HL.
Thank you. The only longs I saw yesterday where in the afternoon when I was no longer trading: I wrote down that I would take a long entry during the 12:05 bar interval, during the 13:32 bar interval, and during the 15:24 bar interval, but the one time in the morning I had considered a long I did not decide it was worth the risk. Today, on the other hand, saw two shorts and a long, and I am now done for the day (I had most of this post ready to go late this morning when an opportunity for me to earn a little extra scratch at my other job arose - and hi ho hi ho off to work I did go) I sold short during the 9:47 bar interval, after buyers took price for a probe that quickly stalled above the premkt news response high. Price then retraced back to the midpoint of the overnight low and high, which coincided with the highs of a short consolidation pre-news this morning. I closed the shorts and reversed to long during the 9:57 bar interval. I closed that long too soon, when price met R at that post-news spike high, fought the urge to go lower, and then sold down a bit. I closed it the long, but did not go short, as I do not wish to take a position unless the most recent high (for a short) or low (for a long) has been tested +/- a tick or two. I know DbPhoenix warns against demanding surgical precision, but for now, I'm riding with training wheels. I was on the sidelines until buyers again drove price to make yet another higher high that again quickly reversed. I sold short duing the 10:39 bar interval. This and the first short today are quickly becoming my favorite set-ups. I call it "The Dog Didn't Bark" set-up, after DbPhoenix's explanation of similar price action in Game's "Making of a Method" journal. As I understand it, if buyers can push price past R, or sellers drive price below S, and price responds in the opposite way from what one would expect from such shows of strength or weekness, then "the dog didn't bark." Simply put, a brief spike in demand that puts price above R, but which quickly dries up or meets overwhelming supply, is a good place for me to look for a short. DbPhoenix explains it better so you can go find it in Game's thread. I closed that last short during the 10:48 bar. I keep T&S open, and what I saw at that time was this - lots of trades hitting the offer, and with larger size than the few tardes hitting the bid. For example, at one point there was a string of trades at the offered 77.50, many with 10, 15. 20 or more contracts, while the few trades taking place at the then 77.25 bid where largely 1 lot trades. I anticipated that prices were morelikely heading higher rather than lower, so rather than wait around to find out, I exited at the market. I am again pleased with my work for today. I have a definite sense of a growing familarity with the NQ, and the behavior(s) of those who trade it. My strength has been waiting for price to reach S or R, and then to take a position when a reversal is signalled in the way price is behaving at S or R. My weakness remains that I do not yet have a real sense of, or confidence in trading a pause in a continuing trend. So if I miss the long entry at S, I tend to miss the entire rally even though I have R clearly and accurately identified on my chart. I know where price is most likely going, but I have not been able to figure out how to join it if I miss the first move off S. I am back to my regular employment for the remainder of the week, and next week, weather permitting, I'm goin' fishin', so I may not be trading again until the week after next. I will do bar replay as time allows, so as not to lose too much of my forward progress. Thanks again for this thread, DbPhoenix. It is much appreciated
I just went back to db's original post in this thread to review and it seems to be gone, is it just me doing something stupid or is this the case for other ppl as well? If the post is gone, anyone got a copy?