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If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

Discussion in 'Journals' started by dbphoenix, Jun 28, 2013.

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niko
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Quote from dbphoenix:

Given that volume was so light on the 24th, I suspect he was looking for further confirmation given that this is all a test of the "climactic" low on the 17th. And the downtrendline from September is still intact.

And of course the next day would be Christmas.
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G, Wycoff was not Ebenezer Scrogge, give the man a break.

#1091 Sep 18, 2013

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dbphoenix
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Quote from niko:

G, Wycoff was not Ebenezer Scrogge, give the man a break.
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I suspect the volume was more of an issue than the upcoming trading suspension.

#1092 Sep 18, 2013

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Gringo
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Quote from dbphoenix:

I suspect the volume was more of an issue than the upcoming trading suspension.
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You are probably right. Considering the pre-Christmas low participation, it's easier for indexes to do all kinds of stuff even to this day.

Gringo

#1093 Sep 18, 2013

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redbox
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Quote from fortydraws:

I went over to TL to review an old post in the Wyckoff forum, and I saw I had a couple of PM's wondering where I have been and whether I was OK. I am doing well. I closed my long NQ soon after the open on Monday, and I did not trade yesterday.

I am working on an EOD trading plan, and I have been spending a lot of time doing replay on daily and hourly charts of stocks, indexes, and futures. I am leaning heavily toward selecting one, or perhaps a small handful of futures markets to trade for the swings rather than individual stock issues.

When I was day trading stocks, stock selection was not too much of a problem - scan for what was moving in the premkt, and then watch to see what it did after the open. I was only going to own it for a few minutes or maybe even a few hours, but by the end of the day, I had no more care about what it did. Holding a stock overnight, for days, weeks, or even a few months feels different to me. During my replay, I have found times where even large capitalized stocks, like IBM, can have large gaps. If I am long a stock that gaps up, that would be nice. But If I am long a stock that gaps down, that would be not so nice.

Futures, especially the index, energy, and metals futures seem to trade nearly 24 hours. And I would be a small trader - one contract in most cases would be sufficient for now.

I find that when I am doing this part of the process, I do best by avoiding the day to day message board stuff. Besides, I have my Wyckoff course, as well as the Book that Shall not be Named always at hand for reference, so it is more nose to the grindstone for me, at least for the next week or so.

I did read back over the last few pages of posts. One thing I want to say is that DbPhoneix is right: This is work. It is enjoyable work, but to get this method there is work that must be done. I did not just sign in to elitetrader in June and "get this" the next day. I had already had almost a year where nearly the only market related stuff I studied was written by Wyckoff or DbPhoenix. And I spent a lot of time both when I started out and over the last three months in the Wyckoff forum.

If you want a trading plan that is "If price does X, then buy - sell when price does Y," this isn't it. It may appear that way at times, and looking at some of my posts and my charts I know It can seem like that. But looking at a chart that has everything marked and is posted after the activity is completed is not the same as having followed that activity and taken those actions as price was unfolding. This is why DbPhoenix stresses observing, either in real time or by using market replay or scrolling a chart bar by bar, slowly, from left to right.

And I would add that you have to be engaged and thinking and observing with a specific purpose - to learn what traders are doing and why they are doing what they are doing. Your purpose is not to identify where you would buy, where you would sell, where you would short, where you would cover. That all comes about as a result of you first coming to understand what and why price moves as it does, especially as it encounters areas of activity that had been significant in the past, i.e. at the highs and lows of various movements.
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Thanks for this Forty, I've been following your posts with interest.
Would you mind outlining a bit more of how you went about your study? Did you have any specific objectives in mind while observing price movements? What sort of things did you note in your journal.

Hope you don't mind me prying.

As well as observing price in my journal, I am going to go through the wyckoff course and note any salient points in my trading plan/notes.
I'm also going through Db's posts here and at TL to glean any nuggets I am missing to try and get a fuller picture of whats going on and more specifically how to formulate a plan. This is before I even think about any trading.

Thanks for your contribution

#1094 Sep 18, 2013

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redbox
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Quote from niko:

Red, did you downloaded the full book, is available in TL as well as the second part focused in intraday trading.
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Thanks Niko, Yes I did, thats where I chopped all the chapters from to make the Wyckoff "lite" booklet.

I thought it would be beneficial to get an overview before delving in the the 400 page monster.
I'm reading other books too, namely Mark Douglas The Disciplined Trader, very interesting insights which chime well with Db's recommendation to only observe price from an objective standpoint.

I'm also going through the posts here and over at TL as well as making notes on the relevant areas such as ranges, midpoints etc. So a lot to get through.

I haven't posted my FTSE commentary today, I am continuing to do so in my private journal, don't know if there is any interest or value in me posting them here.

Regards

#1095 Sep 18, 2013

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fortydraws
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Quote from dbphoenix:

Thank you for your post, but I have one small quibble. It isn't "bar by bar"; it's tick by tick.
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oops

#1096 Sep 18, 2013

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Gringo
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Quote from fortydraws:

oops
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Db's eyes are a sight to behold!

Gringo

#1097 Sep 18, 2013

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dbphoenix
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Quote from fortydraws:

oops
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No biggie. Just remember that price is a movie, not a slideshow.

#1098 Sep 18, 2013

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dbphoenix
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A reminder that we have a little over 200pts to go before we reach the upper limit of the longer-term trend range, though there may be some turbulence around 3280.

#1099 Sep 18, 2013

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bmwhendrix
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DB, Do you see any validity in this channel which might suggest we
may be at a possible turning point? What do you see that supports or does not support it at this point.

Thanks in advance,

BMW
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#1100 Sep 18, 2013

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