DBPhoenix, you have a ton of experience writing & trying to teach people. Do you see very many people succeed at trading with what you teach? I just wonder because I've read your posts & understood them & see the value in what you're saying, but if I try to do what you teach in real time it is nothing but a train wreck (even though it makes perfect sense). I've read other threads which also had what I think is valuable information, but not I or any of the other people, as far as I could tell, went on to have any success. It just makes me think there's something else to trading. I think it's similar to a quarterback in the NFL. If you wrote out how to be a quarterback & described each play & the quarterback was 100% disciplined & tried to exactly follow the plan he would be destroyed. As Clint Eastwood says in Heartbreak Ridge, they have to, "Improvise, Overcome, Adapt". In trading it seems like you have to totally follow your own thoughts, your own brain, your own intuition, your own method. Use your own experience. Think for yourself.
I think very few people grasp what Db is really getting at. And the few that do, realize just how much effort is involved to do the "work" and give up. From my own experiences in life, most people are mentally lazy. That is a big first hurdle to overcome.
More than that, you have to follow your trading plan. But fewer than 1% even develop one, much less follow it. Far fewer. So they fail. Either quickly or eventually. But they fail. And there's nothing I can do about that. And it wouldn't matter whether this thread addressed price action or MACD settings. They'd still fail. 40D is a good example. Those who follow this thread want to trade the way he trades and achieve the results he achieves. But they don't want to go through the process he went through and goes through. This has little to do with age since even the "older" traders I encounter want to take the same shortcuts. Nobody wants to read the material I've written at TL (few people even want to read this thread). Nobody wants to begin, develop, and maintain a trading journal, much less study and experiment and test and practice. The "something else" is doing the work, and sitting in front of a computer day after day making the same mistakes over and over again hoping that it will all click before one goes broke is not doing the work. Improvise and Adapt sounds great, but it amounts to no more than a rationalization for those who want to avoid the work. Anyone who is successful at improvisation will tell you that one has to have a deep and through foundation in the craft, whatever the craft may be, in order to achieve that success. But nearly everyone thinks he's so smart and so talented and so skilled that he doesn't have to bother with that. Guess what?
One thing that I have learned from DB is the importance of the midrange of hinges. This is, as we all saw, the midpoint of Thur overnight hinge and the Fri bugle midpoint as they carried through Friday's action. At least that is the way I am seeing it.
Hello Db, Thanks a lot for sharing your knowledge, your view towards trading and your time. I have been reading most of your writings on the net and I'm convinced this is the way to go. As simple as it is, there is a great richness behind it. The straight lines are just enough to leave one not completely in the dark, all the rest he has to figure out himself. It reminds me of the following story: A student asks a famous writer what she should do to become a good writer herself. The writer answers: pick your most favorite writer and try to imitate him as good as possible. Thanks again and please keep posting, they are all gems and very inspiring.
Hey DB Now that we are at an alltime high at the Fdax , how does one work with targets to the longside ? without any reference of pot. res. ahead ? is this where the skill to judge the market comes into play ? like surfing ? i guess this will be some tricky times ... for taking profits what do you a think ?
Observations from the first 2 hours of the FTSE this morning. First 2 Hours Context Overnight the FTSE gapped up out of the previous range between 6560 and 6000. Buyers then rapidly pushed price up, but were met with resistance at 6660 from all the way back to July. Buyers failed to push the price beyond this resistance and price fell back down to 6650. However sellers made no concerted effort either and price just drifted along just above 6650 for the rest of the night. Observations 1. An hour before the open, buyers made another attempt to push price above the earlier 6660 resistance level - but fail. They canât even muster another attempt and test that level again, so price just drifts down into the open at 8:00 am. 2. Bearing in mind the previous failure on the part of buyers and the past hour of LHâs and LLâs, What will the open bring?. Sellers prevail and manage to push down price rapidly with only a brief respite on the way down. 3. Price is halted at 6630 from a previous support area going back to July, it now tracks sideways for some 50 minutes. However it is noted that buyers make at least 4 tests above the 6630 area. Sellers on the other hand appear to be failing in their attempts to push price down as noted by the series of HLâs. 4.At 9:00 am buyers succeed in pushing price back up out of this small congestion area. Sellers make no attempt to stop the rise noted by no breaks of the demand until we reach the 6650 mark where price is halted, breaks the demand line and starts to move south again. Why stop at 6650 ?. Looking back at the overnight range, this appears to be the midpoint. 5. So will this be a technical rally, what dynamic will happen here now? Are buyers now exhausted? taking profits or short sellers seeing an opportunity? The yellow line denotes the midpoint of the the previous move up. Can sellers push past this area. Yes they can, selling even accelerates as the angle of the SL slopes down further. This continues all the way down until we reach the 6630 area again. Edit: Another observation about this chart. Each successive wave since the open has become less intense, whether a buying or selling wave. What I mean is each wave is taking longer to travel the same distance. I donât know if this is due to the lowering of volume as the morning progresses or some other reason. I donât even know if this is relevant or useful to this study. Maybe Db will have a comment. I have yet to read the Wyckoff section on buying and selling waves.
NQ has followed the FTSE today and gapped up out of the previous range. Shot straight up and halted. Most of the interest for the past 12 hours seems to centered around the 210 mark. Will this be significant in today's action? Will 90 be tested today or in the coming days? As for ranges today, I can see 90 as support and maybe 210 as potential resistance ? Edit: As price moves down this morning it seems rudderless, almost as if it's looking for some sort of support.
Hello MadeMan, In this thread Db has posted comments dealing with situations when there are no support or resistance levels ahead to guide. If you're interested enough you'll have to sift through the thread yourself. Considering the importance of the topic it wouldn't be a waste of time. Db's first post in this thread has charts that can be used as a template for this situation as well. 40D also uses that chart to clear his mind in the morning before trading. You can use that idea to develop a plan for your exits. Price action where one could exit: a) DL breaks. b) Possible climax with price moving faster and higher volume. c) LH, LL d) 50% retracement of price after an up swing or DL break. f) Swing low break This was not an exhaustive study but the there are enough ideas to get you out in stages or in one swoop, however you prefer. Gringo
Thnx Gringo i allready thought about those exitpoints , but then again it may not suite my exit strategy.. or my trading plan.. as i cant come up with setups wich are like RR 1:3 for example with no reference point ahead.. as i dont know how far price will move till it gets in real trouble... then again we never know .. but atleast give us a waypoint... the tricky part is.. if u work with DL for example.. a DL might break at some point.. but the rise still can continue after a short pause.. so exiting to soon.. may cause some trouble.. and u can get into a downward spiral.. wich ends up overtrading or impulse trading.. just wanted to know how DB deals with that... i may have to dig into lets call it "misty trading terrain" .. a lil more and come up with a plan for that wich suites me .. thnx