Choppy all the way since open, then hinge formed and hinge became a 8 points range. Chop-2-Death situation.. Gonna wait for BO > RET or Test on S/R line.
Not quite since the open. Price dropped to the support level provided by the 0500 swing low at 80. One could have drawn at least a few points by going long there and riding it toward 86.
Yeah, I saw the two low but I'm not confident enough to take that shot in such volatile and unclear situation. 1045 - Nearly a BO upside, huge supply up there.
Question for DB Like many traders I have a problem with getting involved in chop. I try to make some general rules of thumb for many aspects of trading for reference during the day when I start to lose focus. For chop, I have the following: 1. If there is not a long or short trade opportunity in the time price makes a couple of swings, do not enter a trade within those swings. Wait for a ret clear of them to be sure you are not in a forming range. 2. If you have a long and short trade, neither of which has any followthrough, wait for a ret outside that range for any other trades. In playback, it seems that these policies would keep me out of more bad trades than they would cause in loss of good trades. Your thoughts? And from others as well.
Swings per se have little or nothing to do with trading ops UNLESS THEY OCCUR AGAINST SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE. Didn't want you to miss that. If they do, then take them. Don't anticipate a range. If you do, you will likely never trade at all. If a range forms without you, then, yes, you can wait until price breaks out of it before taking a trade. But this is an elective, not a required. As for your second rule, yes and no. If you've taken a legitimate long or short trade AGAINST S or R and you get stopped out of it, then take the opposite side if a legitimate trade on the opposite side occurs (you might also get a continuation entry). If you get stopped out of that as well, then stop until price exits whatever range or hinge may form or price reaches S or R. All of which is of course a lot of philosophical metaphysical babble. It won't be practical until a great many specific examples are found on charts. For that you'll have to go to the TL library and look at charts. Or read Game's journal.
We appear to be testing the midpoint of Monday's hinge. Anyone using a longer bar interval, e.g., 15m or longer, would have been out by 80-84, so they're standing aside anyway. But it will be interesting to see what traders do here since buyers were so much more in charge yesterday.
Reading various posts here and there, it seems to me that people are focusing on lines and patterns and zones, particularly those who are dazzled by their own software, and ignoring the story. Yesterday, for example, price spent a great deal of time between 80 and 89. These sideways movements have the potential to provide a great deal of support in an uptrend if and when price exits to the upside. Some buyers will sell on an upside breakout, but many will hold or even buy more. Sellers probed the downside twice to see if there was any selling interest. There wasn't. In fact, after the second probe to 73, buyers had no trouble at all pushing price all the way back past 80 (this is one of those occasions when volume comes in handy). But then, after midnight, price dropped below 80 again. If you had bought above 80, wouldn't you be concerned? If so, you might even sell part or all of what you had bought rather than continue to support the price. This would of course aggravate the downmove. The question is whether the selling stems from buyers getting out of their positions, in which case price will stop falling once they're done, or whether the selling stems at least in part from a concerted effort on the part of sellers to drive price down, which would move price lower than it would otherwise. And when it does stop, what then? Do sellers retire? Do buyers come rushing back in because they see a buying opportunity? Do sellers come in to buy now that price is so much lower? You get the idea.
1004 - RET more than 50%, I just can't take it. I'm out of the short. 1012 - Hinge is on duty now? 1018 - Hinge Break, RET and I'm in for short again.