If you bought Bitcoin on Friday, you have lost almost 28%

I have said before that 30-50k is a reasonable valuation for something like bitcoin assuming it's a "currency of crime". Simple logic - assume that bitcoin is only good for illicit dealings, such as buying drugs over the Internet. Shadow economy (a.k.a crime) accounts for 10% to 15% of global GDP, making the total economy about 7 to 10 trillion dollars. Assume some reasonable % of adoption and suitability and divide that by 21 million.

I have read it and was not impressed. There are better books on crowd behavior that actually deal in scientific evidence and analysis, but probably less entertaining to read.

 

@sle I'm consistently impressed by your ability to keep explaining rational thoughts in an emotional driven conversation.

I just troll most of the time now and point out the glaring inconsistencies of people's cognitive dissonance.

 

Anyone actually able to execute arbitrage across the exchanges? Some of the spreads are $1000+.

 

OK then, clearly you support the idea that limited supply doesn't guarantee price appreciation. Can you please explain why because I'd like to understand it better with out having to read a book.

 

Yes I agree. The blockchain is the only part that interests me. But too complicated for me to understand. I have no energy anymore to study it.

 

100B / 21M = 4,761

$100B by the end of the year is possible.

Total supply may not even reach 17M by the end of this year.

100B / 17M = 5,882

That's why many are predicting a $6K value in the short-medium term.

For all those that don't understand, now you understand. You are entitled to dispute that bitcoin won't reach 100 billion market capitalization for a multitude of reasons but you can't deny the maths involved in calculating it's future value.

 

OK, from now on never close a losing trade and you will have no losses anymore...

 

That should make go off an alarm. But for most people it seems to be "normal".

 

Not specifically about bitcoin, but there are indeed posters on the forum who have no idea or at least no respect for mtm calculations, never mind it is the appropriate way to calculate returns for most funds in the world.
Sure it's easy to have only positive realized statements if one realize only their winning positions. Good luck with that.
Some interesting point about Bitcoin in this thread btw, will keep those in mind, although i'm still in the dark on many aspects of that market.

 

When it hits the news, it's highly probable that the insiders are unloading on those who are buying on the news.