Here are some figures I calculated during the last Bitcoin bull market. Bitcoin is the biggest bull market in history. USD adjusted for inflation since 1971 minus 98% Nikkei 1980's 592% Dow 1920's 596% Gold 2001-2012: 706% South sea bubble 1000% Top end of London housing 2003-2013 1000% Nasdaq 1990's 1553% Kuwaiti stock market 1981/2 2000% Gold 1970-31/1/1980: 2572% Microstrategy stock in 1999/2000 4534% .Tulip mania 6000% Bitcoin 2013 6145% AMZN 2001-2014 7405% NXT crypto Dec 2013 10691% PCLN 2002-2014 19,285% BRKA 1962-2013 2,353,947% Bitcoin 2010-2013 8,160,000%
Russians, Ukrainians and North Koreans are already studying that option. Bitcoin exists mostly in people's mind. What if tomorrow the people who control the monetary world would ban the bitcoin? What guarantee do you have that the bitcoin will not crash as there is no underlying?
Bitcoin exists in a wallet on my PC and I can transfer it to you in minutes if we agree without a third party rent seeker taking a cut. Bitcoin has been discouraged by central banks since its inception because it is deflationary (limited to 21m coins) unlike paper money which central and commercial banks create out of thin air but things are changing. The Chinese made it more difficult to buy Bitcoin and the market is higher than in march when the restrictions came in. The Japanese made it legal tender. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Mrs Watanabe is famous in the FX market. Russian restrictions will be lifted next year.
I pondered this scenario last night. What if a hacker found an exploit to fake bitcoins (i know not much about the tech or whether this would even be conceivable). Better yet, I'd pay some fake news blogger to spread that rumor and buy the dip.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@hacker0/how-i-hacked-hundreds-of-bitcoins-ama Value rising like hell without any economical explanation. In less than 3 months up from $1,000 to over $2,700. Value has huge differences depending of where you watch. Korea: bitcoin seems to be around $4,000? Wouldn't be surprised if this thing would soon explode and vanish.
The real problem starts when you want to cash in and cannot. I learned that you only made money when the cash is in the bank. There seems to be a limited number of bitcoins that you can switch to $ per month. Like a building with 10,000 people inside and 1 emergency exit that can absorb 20 people a minute. No problem... till a fire starts. "Just because the Coinbase limits are changing from daily to weekly, it does not mean users will have unrestricted access to buying or selling Bitcoin all of a sudden. On the buy side there is still a US$10,000 weekly limit, or a US$2,000 instant limit. Users can lift these thresholds by purchasing more cryptocurrency, as was to be expected."
Uh, no. That's not how it works. I have withdrawal limits in fiat, I can sell however much BTC I want depending on liquidity.
And how is liquidity if you want to sell in a crash or panic situation? Offer is then at least 1000 times bigger then demand (if there is demand). Actual price evolution should be a warning signal. You have no garantuee at all about the value you will receive in $$$ when you want to get out of bitcoins. And you never can sue anybody for your losses. In the major currencies you don't have this uncertainty. As a trader I always check risc/reward. If oil can drop from +$140 to below $30, bitcoin can do that too. Oil we need to survive, bitcoins not. So the drop can be even bigger.