If We Have Heavy Volume Soon, Look For A Major Breakdown

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ByLoSellHi, Feb 6, 2007.

  1. If you've been watching volume, notice that in the AM, volume is incredibly light, slightly higher volume (but very slightly higher) in the afternoon lifts the indexes very slightly, and then everything coasts into the close flat.

    The next heavy volume days are much more likely than not to be selloffs.
  2. Mvic


    Yes I agree. I am basically a tape reader and have noticed that in the last few sessions and certainly this morning the big lots on the ES (over 400) were printing at the bid and the smaller lots were hitting the ask. This is a change from what has been happening. The afternoon saw bigs trades on both sides. So what it looks like is that when the big lots start flying they balance each other out more or less and the smaller lots trend the market up. The real tell will be when the big lots on the buy side don't show up (I start looking for them around 12:15PM which is when you should start to think about going long if you are a dip buyer)
  3. Mvic, when was the last time you saw market conditions like this?

    I've been studying reading technical charts ('The Investor's Guide To Technical Analysis' by Curt Renz, and a few others), and it seems very bearish for the markets to have volume flow/price action days like these.
  4. S2007S


    its tough to say, today tech was a bit weak but the small and mid caps were just on a tear. Seems like there is still plenty of bulls running around. It just doesnt stop, continued highs across the boards.

    Check out the brazilian markets and most of the other emerging markets. Some showing such overbought conditions yet they still move up without a problem. All I know is any correction in those markets can be fast and severe. Last year some of these etfs fell 30% in less than 2 months. I know overbought conditions can become even more overbought, however most of these markets are just acting like they can go up forever.
  5. I know what you're saying, and even though emerging markets are still breaking through, we're starting to see sideways/muddling action at home.

    I still say money, when given a choice, is going overseas. Who knows how long that can last for. Chinese officials apparently want to break their highly over-leveraged market sooner rather than later.

    I don't believe all markets will rise in synch forever, or even much longer. We've seen breakdown of technicals in certain markets already.
  6. S2007S


    Im looking at the markets tonight and again RECORD HIGHS on nearly every index.

    ALL ORDINARIES IDX (ASX:^AORD) Delayed quote data

    Index Value: 5,878.700
    Trade Time: 10:59PM ET
    Change: 30.200 (0.52%)
    Prev Close: 5,848.500
    Open: 5,874.800
    Day's Range: 5,854.200 - 5,879.800
    52wk Range: 4,726.000 - 5,849.300

    BSE SENSEX (Bombay:^BSESN) Delayed quote data

    Index Value: 14,478.19
    Trade Time: 5:28AM ET
    Change: 0.00 (0.00%)
    Prev Close: 14,478.19
    Open: 14,486.40
    Day's Range: 14452.78 - 14564.80
    52wk Range: 8,799.01 - 14,564.80

    NZX 50 INDEX GROSS (NZSE:^NZ50) Delayed quote data

    Index Value: 4,211.61
    Trade Time: 10:57PM ET
    Change: 63.03 (1.52%)
    Prev Close: 4,148.580
    Open: 4,148.580
    Day's Range: 4148.58 - 4216.29
    52wk Range: 3,302.180 - 4,159.440

    Straits Times Index (SES:^STI) Delayed quote data

    Index Value: 3,238.12
    Trade Time: 11:01PM ET
    Change: 14.87 (0.46%)
    Prev Close: 3,223.25
    Open: 3,228.05
    Day's Range: 3220.48 - 3240.44
    52wk Range: 2,277.91 - 3,245.60

    IBOVESPA SAO PAULO (Sao Paolo:^BVSP) Delayed quote data

    Index Value: 45,368.21
    Trade Time: 3:11PM ET
    Change: 82.04 (0.18%)
    Prev Close: 45,368.21
    Open: 45,286.73
    Day's Range: 45038.04 - 45485.59
    52wk Range: 32,057.00 - 45,486.00

    S&P/TSX Composite Index (Interi (Toronto:^GSPTSE) Delayed quote data

    Index Value: 13,183.33
    Trade Time: 5:05PM ET
    Change: 16.64 (0.13%)
    Prev Close: 13,166.69
    Open: 13,187.81
    Day's Range: 13158.36 - 13222.35
    52wk Range: 10,860.70 - 13,178.90

    IPC (Mexico:^MXX) Delayed quote data

    Index Value: 28,067.40
    Trade Time: 4:06PM ET
    Change: 134.33 (0.48%)
    Prev Close: 28,067.400
    Open: 27,926.420
    Day's Range: 27923.74 - 28139.72
    52wk Range: 16,464.600 - 28,139.700

    FTSE 100 (FTSE:^FTSE) Delayed quote data

    Index Value: 6,346.30
    Trade Time: 11:36AM ET
    Change: 28.40 (0.45%)
    Prev Close: 6,346.30
    Open: 6,317.90
    Day's Range: 6317.90 - 6369.70
    52wk Range: 5,467.40 - 6,369.70

    SMI (VTX:^SSMI) Delayed quote data

    Index Value: 9,266.16
    Trade Time: 11:30AM ET
    Change: 8.22 (0.09%)
    Prev Close: 9,266.16
    Open: 9,259.30
    Day's Range: 9259.29 - 9303.16
    52wk Range: 7,123.20 - 9,303.20
  7. S2007S


    I would think by now that the bulls would be hoping for at least some minor correction to keep this rally intact. I think the longer these markets go without a correction the more severe the drop will be. Also heard cramer mentioning last week that a drop in the international markets would'nt mean anything to the U.S markets. I dont know what he is thinking, but whatever it is he is 101% wrong on that.
  8. Agreed and completely agreed.
  9. wonder if markets +2% or +3% tomorrow???
  10. Go on record now. :p
    #10     Feb 6, 2007