If we go to War with Iran will that be bad for the US Stock Market?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ElectricSavant, Nov 3, 2006.

  1. Meant to say "the rule rather than the exception"
     
    #51     Nov 15, 2006
  2. Any war with Iran will be a lot like Desert Storm 1991.

    (1) Seize the Strait of Hormuz with US Navy.

    (2) Take out all Iranian assets near Strait.

    (3) Shipping stops for maybe one month...
    Then US polices Strait to allow ALL... except Iranian shipping.

    (4) Take out Iranian power production...
    And Top 20 nuclear sites with precision bombs and Special Forces.

    (5) Iran imports 40% of it's gas...
    Take out all Iranian gas refineries... and Iranian economy grinds to a halt.

    The US military is built precisely for this kind of campaign...
    This is opposite of urban guerilla war in Baghdad.

    Price action will, as usual, be counterintuitive...
    Initial spike... then when clear it will be quick, decisive victory...
    With US policing Persian Gulf...
    Oil and gold will plummet... go back and look at price action during Desert Storm.

    There will be no lack of will.
    Iraq and Iran are now squarely a BIPARTISAN problem.
     
    #52     Nov 15, 2006