If we go to War with Iran will that be bad for the US Stock Market?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ElectricSavant, Nov 3, 2006.

  1. Why are we moving three Carrier Groups for Just War Games?

    What seems familiar about War Games just before a new war? Are we just talking right now in the UN and moving HUGE ships to put a little power in our diplomatic solutions?

    How does this effect the Stock market short term?

    Where are you putting your money?

    Avalanche and TGregg at the first clue that this thread becomes Politics and Religion material do not hesitate to move this thread... ok?

    Fellah's... let's try to stay ontopic and limited to the effects on the Stock Market. This thread can be long or short and in the Economics forum or it can be lost in P & R...its up to you.

    Michael B.
  2. If we go to war with Iran..gold will shoot over $1,000..The US dollar's demise will accelerate.
  3. No, I think its a buy dollars short term situation.

    As far as gold, who knows. Islamists like gold because of their banking laws, you know.
  4. As I'm a daytrader for me it's trade the charts and not the news as far as entry is concerned, but then I'd expect 2 big trends to develop. 1st to the downside as oil soars and investors get the jitters followed by a strong bullish move as defence and oil stocks move to the fore.

    War tends to be bullish after the initial pullback.
  5. Would alternative fuel exchanges and thinly traded derivatives of this soar? How would international trade with Japan be affected? what would the Yen do? The US Stock Market? ....commodities...??? How would Germany's quiet growth in China's international trade stance change? (ahh...we do not talk about that do we? believe me... Bush's roundtable does)

    Traders this is the time to be discussing these items...NOW. It is not the time to just reply after the fact...What are your thoughts now?...go ahead...take a stab at it...be the first to bring out what that little voice in you is saying or telling you...It's far too easy to react and reply to someone elses brain power...it your time now... speak up. Thank you yoohoo for bringing up some important points

    In daytrading, I look at the longer term charts to see my bias. I trade Currencies so there are always correllations...short and long term...and opposing plays...some say Currencies are different than Equities and in this respect, maybe so. But anyways I only take the short term direction, in the same direction, as the long term chart shows and hopefully capitalize on the pullbacks...There are longs and shorts in Currencies with UNLIMITED liquidity, unlike this incredible extended Bull market in Equities with only one direction.

    So back to my question (or a clearer one...sorry). Will the Iran war be enough to trigger long term trend direction changes...or just a temporary blip in the scheme of the "thing"? It is important for my currency trading as I can lose a tremendous amount of money to not recognise a turn soon enough...these longer term weighted averages I use react like slow moving freighters, and I need a faster "speedboat" way to see things...so of course I come to the Elite!

    Our population is aging and the reports from corporations reveal that they are gasining more efficiency...we are fighting Monopolies and Socialism here in America, but that is for Politics and Religion. but does affect this subject. Remember lets keep ontopic, so that this thread can keep popping up to get comment from some elite-econo majors...

    Michael B.

  6. FredBloggs

    FredBloggs Guest

    in a nut shell, common sense dictates war should be bad for the country, especially considering its an oil junkie and iran will turn off the tap (remember iraqs oil reserves are unusable for another 8 yrs thanks to the bush family). so i guess this means we will see a rally!

    i remember reading somewhere that historically war is good for the market, but bad for the soul.
  7. Yup, it was WW2 that got the united states/ germany out of the depression.
  8. This is true. Generally speaking the quickest way to get out of an onsetting depression or extended recession is to go to war. War consumes a lot and thus provided jobs.

    Same thing already happening right now. For some reason many people don't consider how much of the current rally can be attributed to war.
  9. High oil prices suggests higher oil company stock prices, and higher energy (coal, nuclear) company stock prices. I interpret ATK (military company) stock price trend as up for three years. I suspect war in Iran to accompany an increase in ATK stock price. I suspect war to increase price of BLL Ball (aerospace division) as demand for surveillance increases. Possibly higher price for FLIR as night vision equipment is purchased.

    I suspect war in Iran to accompany higher Standard and Poors 500 index values because so many large companies - I recall about 25 % of USA GDP - is energy related.

    Higher stock market index values increase money supply and tax revenue. I expect the USA economy to grow at a high rate until inflationary shortages appear.

    If gold price increases and oil price increases then the USA experiences a high inflation rate. I expect real estate prices and real estate investment trust prices to continue rising as part of the inflationary process. Bank and mortgage businesses participate in real estate sales. Bank and mortgage company stock prices might rise also.

    Fed might attempt to reduce inflation by raising interest rates. This part is interesting because high oil and gold prices are caused by the war, the war is promoted by the State Department, and control of inflation is promoted by the Fed and Treasury. I suspect State wins, temporarily. I expect high inflation and slowly rising interest rates, bond prices decrease and the exchange rate of the U.S. Dollar against major foreign currencies to decrease.
    #10     Nov 4, 2006