Health care. People are fucking sick and dying from this meltdown every day. Didn't Congress put a mental health spending initiative in the 700b bailout?
Tech will still offer the best (real) earnings out there and will benefit from any recovery in the EM first. In addition, I wonder how long this USD strength can last especially if the crisis is more or less resolved in the next month or two. Weaker USD will benefit tech the most.
For the sake of my long term investments, I want to believe this. But I'm not so sure that oil has overshot to the downside just enough. Wasn't the argument on the way up that the oil companies were still using $80 oil in their projections? IMO they haven't felt enough pain yet. I bought the tiniest bit of a position in ECA in case I'm wrong, but I think oil at some point will briefly go lower, $60 anyway. OPEC meeting is still far enough away that we have time to get down there before they can shut off the taps. My inference of course is that oil will continue to lead the commodity parade.
agreed energy got hit so fucking hard it's not funny. Energy names in general will bounc back hardest that includes oil related stock, oil producers, maybe refiners, utilities maybe, solar, wind , ...
Historically, oil tends to go to obnoxious highs and then obnoxious lows. From the early 80s to the late 90s for example. There is some support where it is right now, but if it goes lower then 40-50 dollars is possible. Maybe even lower down to 10-20 dollar range. The only way to trade oil is jump on the trend. If it goes up, you buy. If it goes down, you sell. Simple.
financials will be used ... equity purchases in financials virtually puts a floor psychologically...the government doesn't bail on those positions...
How do we know what form the gov't help of banks will take? It could wipe out or severly dilute equity holders. Like fnm and aig. I'd look to other sectors.
Think I agree with this. In a garden variety selloff, one would look to stocks that had relative strength, but in a crash, you look to stocks that crashed the most for the big bounce.
The car-repossession towtrucking sector The pawn shop sector The insurance-fraud sector The controlled-substance distributing sector Criminal enforcement and incarceration sector (this is a real one) The gunshop/ammunition distributing sector The political-corruption machinery sector The public-entitlement for the unwashed masses sector The shylock / alternative investment sector. Invest wisely for bad times are a comin.