+1. each trade is an independent event. The fact that 7/10 trades with the same setup were successful does not mean the setup has a 70% success rate. Douglas talks about the "just knowing" factor and I couldn't agree with him more. There's definitely a scientific element to trading but the thing that determines profitability is talent. Are you the Miguel Cabrera of trading? In other words, you need to have some inherent talent to succeed.
I have played in Vegas. I count cards. The house "knows" I count cards. Usually I use an ice bucket from my room. If friends are with me I pass chips (silver dollars in my case) to them as theirs become exhausted. As time passes, the house does several things: 1. very strong free drinks. 2. dealer changes (they get more frequent as well). 3. They ask me to dine in a location away from the tables at their expense. It all seems fairly polite because I am a small fry. One common occurance is the displeasure of other players at the table. Before the other players figure out to change tables (their usual idea) they speak to me about how I am wrecking their playing. The house does not like this going on. 30 or 40 years later, I noticed the BJ is played differently. they use multidecks, I didn't notice too much shuffling, and dealing is much faster. From counting, I guessed four decks were in use. I didn't notice that much had changed basically. I was slower due to lack of practice and probably my mind was slower as well.
Since we are talking about Vegas, here is how to get a free drink and make some money. Go to one of the casino bars, ask how much money, you have to put in the machine for a free drink. It was $ 10 last time I was there. Play a game with around 50% win percentage like black jack. I won, and got a free drink.
Bet sizing defintely works. However, it is not based on winning or losing. Reasonably, with unshuffled cards between hands, it is based on the favorability of the deck. "Bet the Dealer" explains this and the book also provites small "cheat sheet" type cards of more or less sophisticated strategies. "5's theory" is a very good starting point for gaining an understanding of bet sizing. Someone offered a bet to me. It may have been too time consumming for me. The time to realize the bet proceeds were much slower than trading to make money.
I beg to differ from the largely negative replies to the OP question. As is known, at blackjack the expectancy varies with the composition of the cards in the deck (if I recall correctly my own studies as a kid, it's the ratio of sixies to figures and aces) By increasing bet size when winning, the player may be exploiting the transitory positive expectancy phases that occur; basically using the outcomes to conduct discovery on the current expectancy, under the assumption that when one is winning it is because the odds are temporarily in his favor. So, like indirectly counting cards. Having said that, the edge must be tiny and I suspect it's lower than cards counting. -ras72