well, you're starting to make some progress. I'm not the one making the point. I'm the one asking the question. again the question remains "On a biased coin toss, can you enhance returns with bet sizing?" The mathmaticians tell me no. But they don't bet their own money and hold back, just in case they are wrong.
And in a circle we go. Okay okay, I get it, you are just asking questions. I'm beginning to get the image that you are just a lonely old man wanting some company... some human contact. You don't care about the answers, you just want someone to reply to you - ET is like a nursing home social room for you. I get it. I'll stop.
ok, now you finally got it. I tried to tell you that, but you never listen. why the hell else would I post on ET unless I was losing my ass in some eur.usd and just wanted to talk to someone? It's lonely down here. But getting back to opie, the difference is between betting on a deck of cards and betting on a trader. but in the meantime it's fun to talk about math especially as to how it applies to traders
at anyrate, getting back to the subject, I would say based on backtesting your system, the way to go would be play 3000 hands, and if you are up, quit if you are down double up and play with 20 for another 3000 hands continue and repeat until after 3000 hands you are finally up then quit
This is not like a casino. This is investing money to get profit. If some one invest their money in fools' way, That person will lost their money. Do not think this is gambling. When you doing gambling, You do not know what is the result. But this trading, We think about future tradings and We guest it using data , experience , and wisdom.
There are no "streaks" in trading. In Blackjack, you can sort of guess the odds based on cards that have previous been played before the deck is shuffled again. In other words, each hand is not independent. In trading, every trade is independent. Just because the contract you are trading has done something does not mean it is more or less likely to do the same thing in the future. Every trade is independent. So increasing your bet while you are on a "streak" is risky. Trading is more like roulette than Blackjack. At least that's my opinion. You may have some system which gives you a better than 50% chance of winning and can adjust your position size accordingly. Good luck!
This coming from a man who writes hundreds of pages of complete nonsense.... You've made my day, old man.