Only idiot can’t tell this is referring to earning yield lol. To me div is not relevant. Companies and shareholders prefer buy backs for the tax defer
3.5 vs. 6 that's the reality... yet you don't see my pro boys advertise this on marketwatch.com... the intention is too obvious - fundamentals are supporting it; - the oct-mar shake down setting the stage; - retail sentiment showing dumb money has given up chips; - price action confirming all of the above... XLK is all time high, qqq and others not far behind; 3.5 v. 6, where will they equalize? 4? or maybe it will be 3.5 forever? that's why I said SP should be at 5000 right now. they are not advertising it... they will tell the public when it's like 3.5 vs. 4 or something when SP P/E reaches 25 forward.. but 5 minutes of independent thinking makes it all clear. want to ride it to 5000? the alternative is of course what most people will do - wasting time trying to make 25 cents from day trading.
My two cents on this ... The last drop(2008) was severe and we had been conditioned to buy the dip. I am thinking that we haven't had a prolonged (2-3years) bear market in a while and no one is expecting it. So either that or more likely just a couple of years of going nowhere. Moving from passive back to active investing should be good for Wall Street. Now how do I make money on this? Seriously, how would you restructure your investments for a two year range bound market?
%% How?? WEll like Mr S noted /implied-dont write options on nat gas= LOL [2] Like Fidelity Fund / ContraFund did 2017, long + strong tech; avoid GE longs. Avoid longs on TSLA or any dumb enough to get fined $40 million by SEC .LOL [3]QQQ drewDown by 80%; could happen again; so plan for that, even if it never draw$ down by 80%, again . [3-7]Despite the bear market, last 3 months, 2018[-20%, +200DMA MOVE]; 200 YEARS+ of USA uptrend could provide a clue, for chart readers.[8] I thought+ posted the GE downtrend was over; then WSJ article downgrades GE again, heading back towards $6.66 price ;target $5.00 WSJ noted NOT a prediction, not fake news.
Only Idiots will do it. Are you new to this field called finance? Why it should be equal? It is similar to risk premium. They are different in corporate structure. Bond holders and equity holders are never treated the same way during times of stress. Bond holders will have first claim on the cash flows. If AAA bond is yielding 3.5%, then stock with earnings yield of 6% provides margin of safety which is risk premium. It may move few basis points, but never be equal. If you read Ben Graham's security analysis, he recommended earnings yield atleast twice the corporate bond yield.
I laughed at this This is what they just mentioned Goldman Sachs says chance of a recession is now just 10% https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/10/goldman-sachs-says-chance-of-a-recession-is-now-just-10percent.html
because if companies need shares for whatever reason e.g. stock options... this is a no brainer to finance the shares with open market debt. yes stocks have risk, but stocks earnings also grow, so the 2 factors basically cancel each other. Ben Graham... who is he doesn't matter, I don't want to know.... just look at the price action in front of you... all the evidence I have posted repeatedly... theoretical talks are empty.
%% Ben Graham; value investor-they hardely ever do as well as groWth stocks , but sometimes do. Just not very often
I believe in value as in relative value across different asset classes... 3.5 vs 6 is too big a gap to overlook. but inside the equity class, 'value investing' in the traditional sense is long dead... any 3rd grader can come up with some valuation model that will perform just as well as Warren or Ben. recent years / decades it's been proven that the successful model is to burn as much cash as possible to grab all the market share!