Then why are unit labor costs not rising you weasel? If you knew anything then you'd be aware of the fact that ULC account for approx. 60-70% of the total costs to private U.S. businesses. If there was any impending inflation unit labor costs would skyrocket but so far we don't see that. Of course, you fail to address this fact completely since it doesn't quite fit with your gold bug doom & gloom view. Commodity costs are of minor importance and are driven by global supply and demand, not by Fed policy. Here's a good book for your wish list:
Government paper is indeed suggesting deflation, whereas physical commodities suggest inflation. Which one is more likely right? Commodities traders who deal with physicals are notoriously NOT a long-term thinking crowd (indeed, they are probably the least interested in long-term trends), whereas those who deal with the 10-year and the 30 year (not the futures, but the underlying) MUST think long-term.
Name calling, good job! I knew you would show your true colors. Fed policies don't affect commodities? What planet are you from? Commodities are priced in dollars! If the Fed pumps out a huge amount of liquidity like it is doing now, that weakens the dollar and causes commodities to rise, obviously supply and demand is a big factor as well, but a weak dollar is a huge boost for commodity prices. Any idiot knows this. Unit labor costs not rising? See below. pwned! Productivity slows, labor costs rise Fourth-quarter productivity rate revised slightly higher, but still well below the prior quarter; labor costs up at the end of 2007. Catherine Clifford, CNNMoney.com staff writer March 5 2008: 11:08 AM EST NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Readings on worker productivity and labor costs in the final three months of 2007 were both revised higher, according to a government report Wednesday. The Labor Department said productivity rose at a rate of 1.9% in the fourth quarter, up from an initial reading of 1.8% Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected the reading to remain unchanged. The revised growth rate is still sharply lower than the 6.3% productivity growth rate posted in the third quarter of last year. "These numbers are consistent with the current economic environment that we are seeing - an economy that continues to moderate," Sam Bullard, an economist with Wachovia, said. Unit labor costs, a measure of how much companies pay workers for each unit of output they produce, was revised to 2.6%, up from 2.1%. The rise in labor costs, driven by upward revisions in hourly compensation, more than offset productivity increases, the Labor Department said. Rising wages can increase inflationary pressure, but while labor costs were revised higher for the quarter, the rise in 2007 was modest, according to Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at research firm Global Insight.
Did you read that at all or just blindly copy & paste? 2.6%. Now look at the graph above. I will happily join your inflation camp once ULC rise 8%, 10%, 12% like they did in previous inflationary periods. Until then, it's just smoke and mirrors. I stick with the facts and incoming economic data, I don't subscribe to paranoid gold bug voodoo. Then why are commodity costs up a lot over the last 4-5 years in EUR terms as well? In AUD terms? In CAD terms? In GBP terms? Etc. Higher commodity costs have obviously little to do with a weak USD and are simply subject to global supply and demand.
This is because the market is beginning to think that the Fed's cuts won't be so aggressive now that they're doing all this other Tom Foolery.
appreciate all the commentary on here, since my econ knowledge would fit under my thumbnail, but slammin guys doesn't help validate any arguments, just makes slammer look ignorant