LOL! Sounds like a bit of performance art to attract OPM. He sure talks a lot about losses for Having a 99% win rate: Mark Weinstein was featured in Jack Schwager’s book “The Market Wizards”. The Wizards books series contained a great deal of wisdom from successful traders. Mark shared some interesting insights into his trading when quoted in the Wizards books series. Quoting him “I don’t try to figure out where the market is going before the action; I let the market tell me where it is going.” One of the public’s biggest misconception about the markets: people always expect the market to react to news. People are always saying that the market is down because of profit taking. The fact is, the market goes down not only on profit taking, but on a lot of loss taking as well. Trading rules: – Always do your homework. – Don’t be arrogant. The best traders are the most humble. – Don’t trade until an opportunity presents itself. Advice: you have to learn how to lose; it is more important than learning how to win. If you think you are always going to be a winner, when you lose, you will develop feelings of hostility and end up blaming the market instead of trying to learn why you lost. Limit losses quickly..
I believe this is def possible, certainly on the intra month profitability. You have to remember you are discussing this in the context of a trading forum, this sound really bad but the majority here have no clue what they are doing. I know for a fact though that there are members of ET who are up there and on top of the game, they don't post much though - as they have no need to. I know of traders (prop spreaders) who have not had a losing month for over 5 years. Obviously these people are in the minority and it's not easy. Just looking at my stats I am green 76% of days over a substantial period with largest losing day less than half of my largest winning day. I average 6 trades a day. It took me a long time to be not get hung up about having down days, I still get small down weeks and that bothers me. I have absolutely no interest in selling anything or mentoring. Maybe in the future, many years from now I could start a trading firm but I would pay them not the other way around. GL.
I don't know about "system" being limited by size, but we're all constrained by the depth of the market/issue.
Oops, you outed yourself. I know you're BS'n because it's the wife who is always right. Even when I'm right she never says, "I was wrong".
yes. I believe the deepest markets are fixed income and FX, of course the longer the timeframe the less liquidity restraints. In equities I guess the ES can handle a fair bit of volume.
In the ES you can usually trade $20-$30 Million... even up to $100 Million with the click of a mouse during the regular session with minimal or no slippage.
Lot of people say that. Tick-by-tick it's manic and noisy, so I don't see how scalpers would do well... but for any measure of "swing sized moves", it's OK. When the electronic e-mini contracts started trading, the big S&P contract traded in the pit was doing the majority of the volume. Now the ES swamps the pit contract to the point the big contract should just be abandoned. The pit contract is $250/point last I checked, so it's 5X as big as a single ES. You have to pay more commission to trade 5 ES than 1 big contract, but you save a lot in avoiding the slippage of the big contract.
Good points, thanks. I agree with you. Reliable (almost always positive) P&L on a monthly or weekly or daily basis is explained by positive expectancy and large enough N, where N required to be larger for lower win rates. A statistical thing. But, it's this particular point which I had issue with: Out of the thousands of trades I made during that time, I had 17 losers, ... 2000 trades, 17 losers, which is a 99.15% win rate. Regardless of how you weigh this up, it's at the extreme end. He might have exaggerated, so it could be 800 trades and 27 losers, say, but this is still better than 95%.
Yes I agree. That specific point on the 17 losers is a mighty claim. Personally I do believe there are a few traders out there with 95%+ hit rates with sensible RR. They are very rare though.