It is funny you mention Virtu. I have a friend who is a head hunter. He claimed that the guys at Virtu in conversation talked about just giving him their strategy. Said without the infrastructure and massive team, you would never make a dime with it.
Wrong. if you take a losing trade, you don't know who the opponent was. Maybe it was Medallion, or some other fund that makes huge profits? So maybe you took the opposite side of them? If you would know in advance it would be one of them you might not take the trade, but you don't know. So maybe you were on the 10% side without even knowing it. How can you know if your opponent is a high % loser or a high % winner? Because you would prefer to trade against a loser I suppose, not against a winner.
HOGWASH! Doesn't matter who the opposite party is. You bet one way, somebody else bets the opposite. At the time of the trade, both are convinced they are correct for doing so.... otherwise, they wouldn't take the trade.
If it's 90-100% right then I know it's worthless as that's unrealistic to continue into the future. And do you mean 90% win rate with average profits of 1%, 10% lose rate with average losses of 12% - that's more realistic.
Nice! Agree couple ways to make money in the market, so called "customer business" front running, and giving the bid x ask spread and receiving the vig and lets not forget the outright size play, where you bet large have a couple good years and get "paid" then eventually blow up Or collect fees as a "fund manager" just barley beating any known benchmark or better yet sub par performance relative to benchmarks of any sort but still getting the "fee's"
We ETers here would start considering your offer when your trading's profit reaches beyond 3x to 6x of daily range daily every single day! Otherwise ...
There used to be a strategy when CME would give you the contra brokerage house. You put a small order out. If it was a big firm on the other you side of the trade, you flipped immediately, and if it was a retail house you held it. Some guy blabbed and now the CME doesn't give that info any more.
If it worked like a charm -- you wouldn't be selling it. Why would you sell a machine that prints money But to technically answer your question...if it made $1,000,000...then it's worth up to $999,999.99
The fatal flaw in your argument is you're assuming trading is like ordinary betting. In a casino bet, each transaction is a complete event. But a transaction in trading is only half an event. The trade isn't complete until you have both an entrance and an exit. The guy who takes the other side of your transaction isn't your competition. You may be entering a trade while he is exiting. Or vice versa. And even if you're both entering or both exiting, so what? IOW what are the odds that you are opposite the same party on both entrance and exit and that you both have the same information about the market but somehow came to opposite decisions on what to do? Microscopically small odds, I say