Dan Rostenkowski from Chicago was the one to fix the 60/40 tax split to help CME and CBOT. They will be dead by now without it. There are tons of money given. I don't see it passing. We are talking big mula here.
The threat of a trading tax will become an annual "shakedown" of the industry by lobbyists and politicians for atleast the next four years.
I'm not going to loose any sleep over this. I'm not expecting such a tax to be implemented. But if it was, I would expect it to be levied on U.S. taxpapers based on global trading. That is, trading overseas wouldn't help. No different than interest and dividends earned on foreign investments. The U.S. taxes it's citizens based on their global income/activity.