If the govt didn't guarantee student loans

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ChkitOut, Apr 4, 2012.

  1. piezoe

    piezoe



    I've had some time now to hunt down the data you need to compute college tuition vs. inflation and then draw your own conclusions, which will critically depend on which estimate of inflation you use. It is the difference in inflation estimates that accounts for the startling difference between inconsistent reports in the media about what is happening to higher education tuition.

    Here is where you can find the data you need to really figure out what is happening to college tuition and why:

    The first site is: http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=76
    This is a BLS site. I don't use the constant dollar columns because they are based on government Consumer price inflation numbers that seriously underestimate true consumer price inflation. Instead, I use the current dollar columns, because this avoids distortion due to CPI calculation method. This is critical to getting a result that bears on reality.

    You can see the result of the government altering it's method of computing consumer inflation here. http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data (See top line, middle chart.)

    I use the SGS measure of consumer inflation which is based on the method the BLS used in 1980. This is a far more realistic measure of consumer inflation than what is being used now, where the government attempts to adjust prices for quality. A questionable method that yields a much lower measure of inflation that is favorable to the Treasury, because of indexed entitlements and TIPS. And also I suppose it may make it easier to cheat creditors via monetizing (I'm not sure about this latter statement. Our foreign creditors are not stupid.)

    I have recalculated the tuition vs. inflation for public 4-year institutions. (You will get similar results, however, for other types on institutions.)

    This time, I used the 29-year period, 1980-1 to 2009-10 academic years, public, 4-year institutions. The BLS data is $2550 to $14,261 for the tuition increase. I used the SGS mean consumer inflation rate over the period 1980 to 2010. That rate is approximately7.5%. I then computed what tuition should be today by adjusting the 1980-81 tuition for compounded inflation of 7.5% over 29'years. The inflation adjusted, 2009-10 tuition should be $20,700. In fact, it is only $14,261.

    Using any reasonable time frame I always come out with either tuition increases keeping pace with inflation (barely) or lagging inflation, as over the example period above.

    It now easy to understand why the public institutions are so strapped these days, especially when you consider that their appropriations have been falling in spite of inflation, and therefore even with hefty tuition increases they have been unable to maintain their budgets even with inflation. They are having a rough go of it!

    I don't understand why there is so much shoddy reporting on this issue, but I suppose it's because when you use an unrealistic inflation measure you get an eye popping result that is feeds public perception and plays into the hands of those who want to paint public institutions as inefficient, and too expensive. Public perception is wrong in this case. What the public doesn't realize is that killing all those Iraqis and Afghans has caused their tuition to skyrocket. The big inefficiencies are in the pentagon; not in the universities.

    The only place I have ever heard the correct figures for tuition increases versus inflation is on public radio. I don't suppose the public is ever going to prefer getting their information from public radio rather than the National Enquirer!

    Buy the way, when you use the official government measure for consumer inflation, you get the numbers in the Gee Whiz article you cited. That's just another example of distortion resulting from government tampering with the inflation numbers.
     
    #11     Apr 5, 2012
  2. pspr

    pspr

    And if the government didn't tax the shit out of you to pay for your education (while skimming some off the top) you would be able to afford your own eduction if you wanted it instead of paying for everyone elses education.
     
    #12     Apr 5, 2012
  3. Thank you Piezoe , your writings are as always very informative , such a pity you don't post more often. :( .
     
    #13     Apr 5, 2012
  4. I wouldn't/don't like it at all.

    1. The Government doesn't "pay" for ANYTHING... They have no money. They are just the bookie who "takes from one citizen to give another in exchange for their vote"..... while raking off an exorbitant vig for themselves.

    2. I'd prefer that all of this business would stop... and people be allowed to rise and fail on their own merits... to be responsible for themselves, regardless of the outcome. THAT's what formerly made America great... (distant memory, I know.) :(
     
    #14     Apr 5, 2012
  5. piezoe

    piezoe

    Oops, I used the 2008-9 number (14261) instead of the 2009-10 number which is 15,014. It doesn't materially change any of the results or conclusions however.
     
    #15     Apr 5, 2012
  6. pspr

    pspr

    Besides, California used to provide free college education to residents. Now look where their socialist policies have left them.
     
    #16     Apr 5, 2012
  7. If public schools from grades K-12 are free, college should be free too.

    There should be no such thing as student loans. If there weren't, tuitions would come down alot. It should be cash only paid at the beginning of the semester. How can they loan an 18 year old kid tons of money no matter what they major in with no guarantee of a job once and if they graduate.

    One day I bet almost everyone with a student loan will just default en masse.
     
    #17     Apr 5, 2012
  8. Daxtrader

    Daxtrader

    College is an outdated system of learning. Why do we need to sit in some class with 400 students to "learn" something? It's a fact that students do not retain much of what is taught in classes. Students need to start making better decisions also. Going to college for a stupid degree makes no sense and is not a wise way to spend your money, and more importantly your precious time.

    There are some professors that record their lectures and post them on youtube. A friend of mine used videos of a professor from another university to learn the subject and never attended his own class in his own university.

    Another one of my friends told me that a professor of his records the audio for his lectures and plays them on a loud speaker in a lecture hall instead of showing up to teach the class himself.

    I really don't see the need for big universities besides getting drunk and banging some sluts.
     
    #18     Apr 5, 2012
  9. G-Unit

    G-Unit

    People don't care to pay higher taxes if they don't have to pay for their college.

    That's not true that if gov. didn't tax me that I would be able to pay for college. Universities are not cheap here. Most of us are still paying off college loans. Taxes are lower here than Europe yet most regular students that didn't grow up with a silver spoon still owe school debt that can't be wiped away.
     
    #19     Apr 8, 2012
  10. That's a pretty stupid assumption.
     
    #20     Apr 8, 2012