If TA doesn't work then why?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by pclark, Sep 4, 2008.

  1. Quants and computer models are just a smokescreen.

    So the managers of, say, Bank XYZ in Hong Kong or bank ABCDEFG in Brazil don't call Jim Simons and ask him about his views on the recent Euro plunge for example.
    A lengthy, annoying, and time consuming phone call; yet Simons can't afford to let them down, and say "Wait for the market commentary letter to customers the next month"; after all their bank has a couple billions invested with him.

    Also computer algorithms don't have bad track records.
    For example, even Buffett had a -44% year, don't remember the exact date.
    The bank manager may ask:
    Who's in charge?
    Buffett?
    He caused us massive losses when I was in Naive Farmers bank!, -in rural Brazil for example-. (And the manager was only there for a year, the bad year).

    Get the money out of there immediately!
    They get scared, get the money only in T-Bonds, and miss the big profits afterwards.
    Then they get struggling to make ends meet, and get a hostile takeover at pocket change prices.

    I know this very well , I know people from the banks.
    Even small local banks in third world countries, have billions to invest.
    And they are often incredible naive, yet they pretend to know about investments.
     
    #11     Sep 5, 2008