It is like wishing with high probability, really seeing in the future is not possible I think. But "guessing" with high probability would be accepted by 100% of the traders if they would be able to do so. If your high probability would lead to 80-90% profitable trades, not being able to really see in future would not be an issue anymore. And it is even not needed to see very far in future. Being able to watch 15 minutes ahead would make you already a very rich man.
I did many years ago exactly what you described and posted that already earlier on ET. I daytrade the ES. In short: took 1,000 trades. wrote down the entry, the exit, the max open profit and the max open loss. started increasing the stop from 2 points up each time with 1 tick increments. tested different take profits. watched the overall results. After each run of a new stop I had to check: which trades were not taken as original setup. for the trades that closed earlier I had to check if there were additional trades because of the earlier closing. This indeed happened and changed the result. Additional trades or trades left out also influenced the compounding result of the return. This whole process took a huge time as I did do this manually. Nowadays the ratio's even improved because of improvements made in the sysem.Without the improvements the later results were always in line with the 1,000 trades analysis.
This is the correct answer. Obviously using 5 minutes bars you can't predict weeks ahead. When I predicted the big Bitcoin selloff 11 months ago I used daily bars, and I think I was expecting the meltdown in the next 4-6 weeks...
It depends. "On what?" It depends, among other things, on what type of forecast you are looking for. Forecasting the exact close of an instrument five years into the future is generally less reasonable than just forecasting whether an instrument will simply be higher, or lower five years from now. It also depends on how you define "reasonable" ... and how you define "shock" ... and "surprise." It also depends upon probabilities. A forecast that an instrument will be up or down 20 years out ... is not unreasonable if it is given a 50/50 probability. But a forecast that an instrument will be up or down 20 years out is less reasonable when giving a 100 probability of happening by the forecaster. tldr: It depends.
%% A] Aim @ never letting a profit turn into a loss. This is a cash remark; And funny but true WSJ MARCH,2017 ''saw'' about a year into the future; 2 of thier bigg [billions] asset managers said exspect more vol..... [2017]LOL+ true.Sure enough,11 months /+, FEB 2018 vol is back LOL. But here is why i like IBD much, much better than WSJ; IBD,FEB 12/+, 2018 week said vol is back; 50 dma proved it So i seldom use WSJ 65 dma moving average too little, too late.[Edit remark, a WSJ,MAR2017 to FEB 2018 projection or ''seeing''is useLess to my trend following. Plenty of WSJ weekly charts with SEPT sells+ NOV uptrends+ DEC sells are much more of a help than 52 week ''seeing in the future] But WSJ has better weekly chart$ for SPY[ actually they name it S&P 500....... IBD mostly only prints daily charts for S&P 500, Nasdaqqq. WSJ has better take over articles//carl Ichan info.........3day move?? Sound$ like options or derivatives which require selling/closing monthly friday, /+.............................................................................