if saddam were to die

On the emini thread someone said he thought Saddam had died.

I wonder if the market would actually rally in that case.

I mean, the reason why we will have the war is to jump start the economy. If Saddam dies, the US will have to look for another excuse to take that measure. I know that officially the war is "necessary to secure freedom and democracy", but the markets are not about politics and talk, they are about the truth behind matters. So don't you think Saddam's death would cause US stock markets to drop rather than rally?

 

Yeah good point... if Saddam dies, we gotta find another excuse QUICKLY to go into Iraq for that black gold...

Maybe we can say we're going in to stablize the situation between the Shia and the Sunni tribes... but we gotta find some kind of reason, or those dam Iraqis will keep hold of that oil...

 

It would rally at first so that the big boys could get better fills for their shorts... You are right that the war is not about freedom, but I am not sure it will really help to jump start the economy, I mean for a long run. It may help for a while, but then what? Another war? With whom?

 

Then we will make a rally... and after that like Ben Laden who was said to have been killed he will reappear and everything will become dull again

 

How about North Korea ? Do they have oil ?

 

That's why I used the term "jump start". A car won't take you from Tampa to Sarasota if you just jump start it. But if you have enough gas and everything works except your battery, then all you need is a jump start.

If your battery is dead and you only have an ounce of gas left, a jump start is still possible, but you wont get to Sarasota.

Which scenario is the actual one is irrelevant to my original point.

Other than that, I agree with you. What WILL we do afterwards? The economy won't fix itself and Bush wants to get re-elected. His guys have to be working on something. And they better be working hard. We wouldn't want a democrat to get elected...

 

No, I don't think so, but they may have weapons as deadly as Saddam would ever get, but that is of course irrelevant because freedom=oil.

 

this thread doesn't belong in the trading section, it belongs in the brainwashed american bashing non-trading losers forum.

 

Please post a link!

 

Bush will simply jump on North Korea, ... the market would sell of once again.
Geo-Political unrest ---> more SHORTS!!!