but the cost of each barrel also goes up. futhermore, alternative oil have a smaller EROEI. they are better than ethanol that has a negative EROEI but its lower than conventional easly accessed crude oil in the developed world I have no idea if imminent peak oil is true but each year the evidence is going in their favor. the EIA says world production will peak in 2020
$79-100/barrel shale oil is costly compared to $50/barrel light sweet crude from Saudi Arabia. However, it's downright cheap compared to $129-150+/barrel crude oil, and politically viable at roughly $70/barrel (at that point, it's cheaper to take the money currently subsidizing ethanol and use it to subsidize shale instead). Strictly speaking, old-growth hardwood isn't meaningfully renewable, either. Take a peek at Wikipedia's article on oil shale. Especially the economic analysis part. Even if every other nation on earth decided to forego shale oil for whatever reason, the US could tell them all to fuck themselves and profitably produce more oil from its own shale than the total that's been drilled from every well on earth since the dawn of the oil era... and then some. When the day arrives that oil routinely costs $79+/barrel, shale mining and retort will begin with a vengeance. The ONLY reason oil companies are still holding back *right now* is the possibility that they might be allowed to do wholesale drilling in Alaska (not just within a tiny piece of ANWR, but anywhere with oil that can be profitably drilled), which would blow the economics of shale to bits for at least another 25-50 years. The point is, oil isn't going to become permanently expensive anytime soon. When the supply of $50-70 oil begins to "dry up", there's plenty of $79-100 shale oil waiting to take its place. The environmentalists who were eagerly hoping "peak oil" would make cheap gas go away are going to be disappointed, and will have to think of some new excuse to rain on everyone's parade.
Dude really, lay down the pipe and start to crunch the NUMBERS!! The USA will NEVER be self supporting of oil substitutes! By the way the only reason you are talking about oil SHALE is because of peak OIL which is about CRUDE oil. If crude oil weren't peaking we wouldn't need oil shale. Fucking DUH! Now the Canadian oilshale fields can produce max. 4 mbpd, currently half of it and raising the production is hard. In the USA, there is simply not enough water to use for the shale conversion to oil. look it up, the West is drying up, all the water has been spoken for. The USA uses 20 mbpd and we produce 6-7 of it here. So you tell me where this magic substitute of 14 mbpd will come and I will get you the economic nobel prize.... You are correct about the economic incentives when the price of oil is high, but that is just a small part of the problem and rate of production, aviable water, enviromental concerns, slow production growth and EROEI are the rest...They screw up your little dream...