If Oil Gets Smacked Down, Equities Will Run

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ByLoSellHi, May 28, 2008.

  1. Send S2007S a private message, he will let you in on his secrets how he made millions in that ETF alone!
     
    #31     May 29, 2008
  2. You're right today

    Oil and gold getting killed and stock surging

    but oil and gold will keep going higher
     
    #32     May 29, 2008
  3. offbyone

    offbyone

    The markets might cheer oil going down a couple bucks for a couple days, but over the long term a couple bucks isn't going to help. Even if oil drops 10 bucks i could still see gas prices going up in the long term. The refineries and gas stations are running pretty thin margins right now.

    The dollar is going to have to make significant gains for a real correction. That ain't going to happen unless the fed starts raising rates which seems pretty unlikely or maybe the euro community lowers their rates which also seems unlikely.
     
    #33     May 29, 2008
  4. #34     May 29, 2008
  5. vince111

    vince111

    there is just more demand from countries like India and mostly China.

    plus you have depleting oil reserves.

    less supply and more demand plus stronger currencies...you have perfect storm...and low interest rates.

    What is the FED thinking.....

     
    #35     May 29, 2008
  6. Stocks surged today?
    It looks like stks caved in half of their gains despite a $4 drop in oil and extreme buying in financial stks. We are at an interesting point with oil where demand is way down here but still going strong elsewhere, where etf's and speculators have the advantage. Where governments are delaying taxes and stopping subsidies it's all very interesting indeed. With corporate earnings in the dumps and pre announcement period upcoming oil's retreat to $120 will not change anything in the big picture. I wouldn't make equity decisions off oil now or assume we will rally hard because oil retreats. ~stoney
     
    #36     May 29, 2008
  7. vince111

    vince111

    these funds must be long equities

    anyways most traders at elite trader don't give a damn about market opinions or positions from hedge funds or even investors.

    i mean if you are daytrading and trading for days, these things or fundamnetals don't matter.



     
    #37     May 29, 2008

  8. I think you are right about those items that are nonsubstitutable or difficult to stop using. The good part is that the nation had a nice time consuming some of those goods that are priced high now at the low prices in the past from Walmart, Target, and Costco. Prices seem to average out in the long run.

    Maybe the reality is that prices were artificially too low before, and recently just spiked up to catch up. Can there be an obesity epidemic if food prices are too low?
     
    #38     May 29, 2008
  9. What's actually happening is that folks who invest in oil futures do not have take possession of the actual barrels. In the gold market this has always been the stumbling block and why people buy the mining equity because they do not want to store a bunch of gold. Well the Senate is working towards changing the rules so speculators will now have to actually take physical delivery of the oil! This should be great news in the long run for oil companies stocks as they will find new buyers and in the short run Oil will immediately fall to $80. It's a cool idea and i hope it goes through. Lets see these Harvard quants from Goldman actually rolling a few barrels into a warehouse if they REALLY feel so strongly about their " peak " oil scenario... lol. ~ stoney
     
    #39     May 30, 2008
  10. Now that the stocks and oil are down -40% or more, all analysts are calling for deflation.

    Oil $50 and below is probably more bullish for stocks and the economy in general. The more it panic sells lower the better. It is like free money being injected into the economy.

    I think this will help stabilize the economy until the next round of unemployment.

     
    #40     Nov 17, 2008