that's some very cool & detailed stats you found with back-of-envelope calculations on the above, eg. 11% winners: 0.11 x 4.57 million = 502,700 winning traders in the mix total net profit = 502,700 x US$2000 = US$1,005,400,000 just over a billion US dollars net within the top 1%, since they made 51% of the total net, would be 45700 traders (1% of the total 4.57 million traders) sharing 51%x US$1,005,400,000 or US$11200 average in the top 1% that'd be equivalent to the top 1% retail trader in India making roughly 6x the annual average income per year just from trading (google search estimates around 150k Indian rupees annual income, or US$1800) assuming the distribution of ratios is not that different in the US, 6x avg national income would be $225k (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N) so if you're making $225k from trading profits in the US, that'd place you well within the top 1% of retail traders (bc with the 80-20 pareto like distribution, or actually 99-1 distribution, likely the top 0.01% of retail traders get 30% of profits etc)
Good grief! If you are going to succeed in trading the markets, you need to know (1) when/where to make a play and (2) WHY that play should work (because it's probably correct this time as it has historically been correct a significant percentage of the time in the past). If you can't "get to that point", there is little hope. Trying to trade "the opposite of what you feel" is ridiculous!
1) One reason to why traders lose is transaction costs. Those can unfortunately not be inverted, unless you start a market making business. 2) "Inverting yourself" in a vacuum as a discretionary trader is patently ridiculous, you're likely to change something. Maybe you could do it by trading into a black box that may or may not decide to invert your signal. 3) Chances are your alpha is zero as a losing trader, no more, no less. Only it seems like you have negative alpha due to point #1 above. This means there's nothing to gain by inverting.
When you try to win trading stocks you are playing with “ scared money”.. Thats not the case when you try to lose..
Loss and positive return traders are cancel each other and the mean return is zero. That's all you need to know. This is one of the key things you can judge about with some certainty.
Most of those who day trade futures don't realize, commissions will add up to 100% of their small accounts at end of the year. So many will have to do 100% just to breakeven. It be better to save more funds and swing trade, risk little for much larger profits.
If you try to win you lose at a given variable speed determined by market forces and your choices, if you try to lose you lose spectacularly fast, someone I know ran the numbers and the NYSE can absorb an Accredited Investors nest egg in seconds, the world works on trying to win faster than the next person. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/unregulated-broker.373473/page-2#post-5790095 It relates to above, the key is what I do via the people I know, you stay inert not losing while still having market exposure, until such time some third party rolls crap down the hill and you layer winning alongside it. Apparently everyone on this site likes this type of thing, every piece of fintech, methodology, process, knowledge I have access to works on this basis, from the top down, you will never find it anywhere else except those provided with a golden goose like Buffett or at levels of institution and sovereign. It works for everything, health, lifestyle, markets, corona, inflation, careers, winning and losing today are starting to correlate, all you can now do is profit alongside sovereign wealth and institutional movements, not many in the world that can track those before they have finished