If most daytraders lose money, then...

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by crgarcia, Oct 29, 2008.

  1. all you had to do is the exact opposite?

    If you had access to a prop firm or trading arcade connection, you could monitor trades place, and do the exact opposite (long when they are short and viceversa)?

    Of course its possible that they only lose the bid-ask spread or commissions.
    (Which you couldn't offset by reversing)
    But, actually, most daytraders lose big.
  2. Anyone knows if this (secretely reversing daytraders orders) has actually been done?
  3. LOL you think the stats are better for any other type of trader?

    Speculator, Trader, Day trader, and especially INVESTOR.

    The majority LOSE. Thats how life works. If everyone won it wouldnt be any fun anyway would it?
  4. rdg


    So either it is simple to create hugely successful mechanical trading systems, OR reversing a hugely unprofitable system does not yield you a hugely profitable one. I'll let you guess which one is true.
  5. Day traders fail for the simple reason they take the complexity of the markets and take it to the next level. 1 minute chart "trends" are superficial and erratic. So you take the stress, the complexity of the markets and multiply it many times over only because people are afraid of holding positions overnight or have no confidence in longer trends.
  6. Hold overnight!!! OMG, what are you saying?
  7. Take out for slippage, commission, bad money management/errors, data feeds, system fees, etc. etc.

    Then you will understand why trading is negative sum, not zero sum.
  8. There is a bigger risk involved in trading fickle 1minute trends than holding overnight for the simple reason that nothing MAJOR has to happen in order to reverse it out of the blue. In order to reverse a trend on a 6months chart you need millions of shares. In order to reverse a 1 minute "trend" a few thousand(hundred even) may do. Big difference.
  9. Finally someone with common sense, here at ET
  10. "Few other fields have more published rules and guidelines than trading. After all, there's no Idiots Guide To Trial Defense. We've been inundated for decades with the old saws about cutting losses quickly and letting winners run. Still we see little improvement in the trading performance of most participants. Futures trading is truly a zero sum game. "

    #10     Jan 5, 2009