If you were to simply trade every tick in a trading session either long or short without regard to any type of entry strategy. Taking into account a 1 tick spread between bid and ask, Statistically you have a: 40% chance to hit a 1 point profit target before a 1 point stop. 60% chance to hit a 1 point profit target before a 2 point stop. 70% chance to hit a 1 point profit target before a 3 point stop. 45% chance to hit a 2 point profit target before a 2 point stop. 30% chance to hit a 2 point profit target before a 1 point stop. Just keep the odds in your favor.
If your assumption is correct, I will get the following results after 10 trades: 40% chance to hit a 1 point profit target before a 1 point stop=-2 60% chance to hit a 1 point profit target before a 2 point stop=-2 70% chance to hit a 1 point profit target before a 3 point stop=-2 45% chance to hit a 2 point profit target before a 2 point stop=-2 30% chance to hit a 2 point profit target before a 1 point stop=-1 Donald Trump must be operating his casinos with your formula.
Not a scientific study or intended to be quoted as fact... Just ran a few days of ES tick data through Excel... about 6,844 Tick changes. For each Bid Tick: Used an array formula to scan down the table to see if Ask hits + 1 point before - 1 point... repeat for Each Ask Tick and various different scenarios. Summed the results for the stats. Obviously its a small sample of a few days price action. The point I was really trying to make to the op was sure its possible just keep the odds in your favor. An interesting observation was that a 5 Tick Profit Target / Stop Loss (1.25 points) hit 60% of the time. What a difference one more tick makes... Brought back memories of an old trader friend who would never trade on the zeros.