I said "it's not a guess"... here's why, and then I'm done. We'll let time decide. TOP #1 reason: They are masters of the supply chain. that in and upon itself is enough. Their deep pocketed buying power and unassailable moat sets the rules and calls the shots. Everyone else sucks up or dies. Top #2 reason: They are masters at preventing shrinkage. That's a big thing these days it would seem. Put it this way... The Bellagio in Vegas is an equal apples to apples comparison when it comes to crook-spotting tech. Top #3 reason: This goes back to #1 in a way.... But if Wally World doesn't have it... you'll never find it at DG or DLTR. Maybe a Walgreens or CVS can match this for their selected SKU's...but you'll pay way more. So why does it get its own ranking? Because the stores have focused on perfect, completely clean, wide open aisles and stocked shelves. Find that at a DG or DLTR and I'll kiss your ass. They look like a hurricane just went thru. Junk everywhere. Unpacked inventory clogging aisles, no one knows wear anything is, they're a wreck. Because why?..... beats me... apparently they can't get employees? Why? Whatever... we are evaluating companies here. That's their problem but it needs to be fixed. If anyone follows what I write here in other threads, you'll know I have addressed this and called out both of those stocks as being overpriced. The market has proven me correct. In a big way. Top #4 reason: These guys aren't lying around letting the future pass them by. Just like they always have, they remain on the cutting edge of forward thought and precision, smart deployment of capex on tech. They will lead the way, perhaps only rivaled by Amazon, in the deployment of robotics and AI to achieve greater efficiencies and at the same time... greater top=line revenues. Who listened to or read over their little 2 day conference they just had this week? Google it. You'll see. Top #5 reason They own the land underneath their stores. And in their BEST locations... they own the whole friggin block with dozens and dozens of rock solid tenants. There's a huge difference between being a bank that has lots of CRE on the loan side of its balance sheet (current mantra to worry about via the financial press)... and being a corporation that actually owns that land. PRIME commercial land. Let inflation rage... that land is a hedge. New tenants will come along if some go under. Top #6 reason Multi-channel b2c with a team of the best and brightest that wake up every day with one goal... how do we beat AMZN. striving everyday to match AMZN. Top #7 reason Price. Consumers are pinched and while Krogers etc are just as good... I go back to reason #1. Top reason #8 Sam's Club. Costco is good, maybe a little better, but WMT is not far behind. And again, their buying power clout across the lions share of products... dwarfs Costco Top reason #9 And maybe the top reason aside from #1, but it encompasses all the others... That CEO... he is sharp af.
Methinks MSFT will kick GOOG's ass in the next 2 years 4/6/23 MSFT @ 291.60 In 2 years --> over 1,000 (and that's the conservative estimate)
Well no screamin' duck-sh*t. It's the downturns that matter. And the subsequent bounce. Of course growth stocks, tech in particular, will outperform. If the purpose of my post was to pick high beta, high fliers, I would have said that. They also drop the fastest, and that leads to panic redemption's which feed that fire. We're talking the Dow 30 caliper of stocks here ok. Blue chips. Don't be dense. Schiz said MSFT... that would certainly be in my top 5 list too, but I think WMT has the edge. The top-line is there. Any improvement on margins drops straight down. Thing about MSFT... it's already above the top of its channel by a mile. The damn thing is (almost) single handily holding up the S&P. Just like Apple and TSLA. You have to account for risk. We don't have a crystal ball. In a downturn... WMT wins hands down.
#3 is a marketing tactic. Those stores are dingy because it makes people feel like they are finding a bargain. Walmart has wide aisles to make people feel like the store has everything you would want. Walmart has been figuring how to monetize tech for decades. They haven’t figured it out. It feels like a relic that is succeeding on historical dominance and size alone (like they are Europe and Amazon is China). This may not matter for all the reasons you cited. I won’t bet against you, Zandy.
Nice pick. While, I buy most of my stuff at Amazon, if you compare prices, a lot of Walmart prices are lower. If you are buying a lot of items, Walmart makes more sense. I tend to look at Target too when I am seeking the best price. Some items are cheaper at Target. Inflation is here to stay as the Federal Reserve cranks up the printing press and Joe Biden, Democrats, RINOs all spend like drunk sailors. So, my pick is GLD. Got a bite of it, want some more.
Speaking of Mr. Buffett, I'd pick his company (BRK.B) if I had to pick only 1 for the next 2 years. I think the markets could be quite a bit lower at some point over the next 2 years so let some experienced money managers pick the bargains from the rubble with their large pile of cash. Diversification would come from all the companies within Berkshire.