If Fed cuts only 25, what is best strategy?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DataCruncher, Jan 30, 2008.

  1. 1:15pm central
    Rueters/ Bloomberg live feed for the instant, other than that CNBC/Bloomberg tv but you will miss the first move but don't worry based on the language it could get crazy CNBC knows better than to tell it instantly it would mess up all of us who pay a lot of $ for live feeds.
     
    #11     Jan 30, 2008
  2. Short baby, short.

    QID on margin for 4:1
    Or short futures.

    Now I'm not buying options, premium (implied volatility) is sky high.
     
    #12     Jan 30, 2008
  3. if there is only a mild selloff, would you recommend buying ATM or ITM puts?
     
    #13     Jan 30, 2008
  4. I am going to bracket ES and ER2 to catch a spike either way, and then hopefully bail before the inevitable whipsaw.

    then wait for it to calm down for a directional position into the close.

    i would assume a big sell off to previous lows on a .25, but ya never know. This is why I am bracketing for either way.

    And yes, this is a pure gamble for the 1st trade, but the R/R will be really good. I'll keep the stop tight as I am expecting an initial spike.

    BTW, the bracket won't be placed till about 2 mins before the release. it will be tight above and below.
     
    #14     Jan 30, 2008
  5. If the fed only cuts .25 point then I would suggest you shoot yourself in the head. If they cut .50 then shoot yourself in the knee. If they don't cut at all, shoot yourself in the heart. The most important point is to have the gun ready so you can react quickly.:D
     
    #15     Jan 30, 2008
  6. OMG FED DAY ALL IN LONG WITH NO STOP!!!1!!!one!!1!
     
    #16     Jan 30, 2008
  7. Your real-time quote screen :)
     
    #17     Jan 30, 2008
  8. negative momentum divergence. wait for breakdown of short-term uptrendline for short entry. if positive, wait for resistance breakout for long entry. - Jeff B
     
    #18     Jan 30, 2008
  9. Do you work at SocGen??
     
    #19     Jan 30, 2008
  10. Especially after the GDP report, there's no way the Fed doesn't cut by 50bp.
     
    #20     Jan 30, 2008