Vast majority lose but the majority lose all different kind of ways. So just doing the opposite won't cut it.
Reversing the position does not solve the problem. What if the stock moves sideways in a trading range? That happens a lot of times. You would take a bet now to short it when the trend which was up could resume with a breakout! Now, you are really in deep doo doo! You made not one but, 2 bad trades? You sold off a winning trade resulting in a loss, the first trade and compounded it by losing more monies now because you are trading against the trend by shorting it? Now, it is going up! Dumb by all accounts and I would leave it at that!
Because they can't predict movement. So take the other side of your own trades. Brilliant. Sporadically price travels away from VWAP for the whole day. I'm not sure what that is. As I was writing that I realized that 3 equal tops on 3 bars can be a triple top on some timeframe if you scroll back. On this chart you can see three highs that were the same price and then price went lower. Obviously the trading goes other places sometimes.
ok - this might help.. look at my 'trading is easy' thread.... refers to the fxcm sentiment I use a lot... yes you need to do the opposite of what most do, because in this game guys at the top of the pyramid feed off the bigger dumber crowd at bottom, so retail sentiment is an excellent indicator.
True... That's why springing it on an unsuspecting "trainee" (complete with a front-end showing what the trainee is losing) might be interesting.... you might want to throw in some expletives and give them extra (worthless) homework for screwing you so badly. Then fire them after a month, because that's what would make sense to do if they were blowing up every account you gave them. Rinse and repeat. Think of the stories the trainee gets. "I answered this craigslist ad to learn trading, I blew up $100,000 of this guy's money who just asked me to trade. I was totally unqualified. He gave me zero training, other than to tell me that it's easy, and I would get the hang of it. I totally sucked, I lost it all in 3 days, and he gave me another account to try again! Plus he paid well! What an idiot."
But, does this make sense? Price uses gets around 8 to 20 points away from VWAP. So just trade in the opposite direction when it does?
If I do what I know is wrong then... If I know what I do is wrong then... what I do is what I know its all wrong
Took a look at last weeks PA on a 5 minute basis. Monday there was one trade that if you timed it perfect you made a whole big 1.75 pts. Tuesday 1st trade made "perfectly" 2.50 pts, 2nd trade again "perfectly" 3.25 pts and 3rd 5.25 pts not bad. Wednesday 1.25 pts Thursday too late in the day to take. Friday 1.25 pts lousy. So what they says to me, granted very little time researching, it that although it might seem to be tradable it isn't IMO. Just another scalping type technique that without a large account plus exchange seat commission rates and co-located fast connection it's not worth the trouble.