LOL the market is NOT methodical. in fact is the other way around. <b> it is chaotic.</b> chaotic and hence unpredictable.
Expectancy is how much a trading sytem is expected (statistically) to win on average or the the "edge" (literally) of a system, in gambling terms. For a derivation of the formula see this excellent article by Michael Harris that relates expectancy to Kelly formula.
what is "methodical"? I have never seen the word before, but the first part of the word seems familiar. Damn, I just want to do some day trading, I don't want to look up a word in the dictionary, that reminds me of the horrible days in school. I hate these words, especially those in GRE. Anyone took GRE? by the way, why is this thread in psychology section? sounds like belonging to chit chat.
scored 99% in both math and logic, but only 38% in language (not my mother tongue). anyway, if the market is 100% chaotic, then that means the price is 0% predictable.. therefore all of us here are 100% wasting our time... that would be 75% ironic, isn't it. Human behavior is not 100% random. Human behavior drives the market. On surface it is chaotic and random, but underneath there are predictable elements. These elements are the market's 'method' to reach the agreeable price in an auction. What do you feel when you see the price go up/down/sideways, when you are long/short/flat? Is your emotion 100% random? then you'd be 100% insane wouldn't you? If we assume that >90% of the participants are not trading out of the mad house, then their behavior would be certain% predictable under these situations - 68.342% chance that a flat trader regrets he didn't buy before the rally 78.34% chance that a long trader regrets he didn't sell before the break 88.324% chance that a short trader will panic to cover when the price go up 27% in a week. I have more to share if you wonna listen. But you got a taste. Keep It Statistical, Stupid.
Your reply reminds me of a saying: Deep water runs silently, shallow water runs loudly (pardon me if they are not the exact words). In your case, it is very loud. Therefore I believe you are very shallow. In my straightforward words, you don't know how to trade. Am I wrong? 23.75% wrong?
I am giving you the most valuable lessons for free.... but in return, you give insult with no substance. Ignore is served until you apologize.
Yup, couldn't agree more. 95% of the trader's could care less that it is, why it is, and how to use it. This is why the other 5% are consistently profitable.
This coming from "Ostrich Man". I'm so sorry you have such a problem with the English language. You know there are courses you can take at your local Community College to fix that. If you would like I can give you the name of a VP at Raytheon Corporation that would give you an earful regarding your closed mindedness to simple physics. Have posted calls . . . you conveniently ignore they exist. I don't need to "twitter" with twits to validate what I do . . . I just trade.
If you're open minded, I can prove it to you or I should say, you can prove it to yourself. Of course if you don't believe the market is cyclic, it is in a contant state of oscillation or believe support will always be followed by resistance and that resistance will always be followed by support then you can't prove anything to yourself. There are many types of chaos, the market is simply a unique and methodical form of bounded chaos.